Hector Neris

Position: RP B/T: R/R

Age: 34 (06/14/1989)

2023 Traditional Stats: 71 G, 68.1 IP, 1.71 ERA, 1.054 WHIP, 6-3, 77 SO, 31 BB

2023 Advanced Stats: 246 ERA+, 28.2% SO%, 11.4% BB%, 3.35 xERA, 3.83 FIP, 4.45 xFIP, 0.8 fWAR, 2.5 bWAR

Rundown

Hector Neris began his career as a member of the Philadelphia Phillies, pitching in their bullpen from 2014-2021. Neris finished his Phillies career with a 3.42 ERA, a 21-29 record and 520 strikeouts through 407 innings pitched. He followed his time in the NL East with a two-year stint in Houston, posting a 2.69 ERA in 133 innings where he struck out 156 batters.

While Neris found success with both teams, he was never quite consistent in his tenure. He’s struggled with pitch location and posted the second-worst walk percentage of his career in 2023. His 11.4% BB% fell in the 12th percentile compared to all pitchers in 2023, according to Statcast.

However, Neris posted his career-best ERA in 2023, which ranked seventh among qualified relievers. He ranked in the 98th percentile for hard hit percentage (28.0%), 95th percentile for xBA (.196), 91st percentile in average exit velocity (86.5 mph) and 90th percentile in pitching run value (16).

Neris threw his fastball 51.7% of the time this past season, the most he’s thrown it in his career. He mixed in a split-finger, sinker and slider in his repertoire. While his hard-hit percentage was down, as well as his line drive percentage, his ground ball percentage was one of the worst of his career at 31.7%. Of the 13 earned runs given up, seven came on the home run, while five came on the fastball.

Regarding the fastball, Neris’ velocity took a dip in 2023. His fastball velocity sat at 93 mph, a full mile down from 2022 and his lowest since 2015. His off-speed and breaking pitch velocities also dipped. While this is cause for concern, Neris posted a career-best BAA lefties and righties in 2023. Righties hit just .181/.280/.326 against him while lefties went just .163/.272/.245.

Contract

Both MLBTradeRumors.com and Fangraph’s crowd-sourced projections have Neris netting a two-year deal. MLBTradeRumors has Neris landing a two-year, $15 million deal, while FanGraphs has him signing a two-year, $16 million contract. The reliever market has been hot, and with only a few big names left, Neris is one of them.

The right-hander turned down his player option for $8.5 million to try and get a more lucrative deal this offseason. While he may earn around the same amount he would have made in Texas, he’s betting on himself. He might garner a deal north of $10 million, still for two years. Jordan Hicks signed with the Giants for four years, $44 million, but will start. With a similar history to Hicks, Neris might land a deal akin to this, but in reliever-friendly years.

Recommendation

Of note, Neris is one of the most durable relievers in the game. He’s never served time on the IL for any arm issue and ranks among the league leaders in innings pitched for relievers. On the flip side, the Mets have had nothing but durability issues in their bullpen for as long as they can recall.

While most of the Mets’ reliever signings this past offseason have been low-to-medium-risk, high-reward, Neris would mesh perfectly into that plan. His upside is high; however, he’s experienced instability in the past with command. A return to a competitive NL East would allow Neris to pair up as a setup man for Edwin Díaz.