Carlos Correa

Position: Shortstop
B/T: R/R
Age: 28 (9/22/1994)

2022 Traditional Stats: 136 G, 590 PA, 22 HR, 64 RBIs, 70 R, 24 2B
2022 Advanced Stats: 4.4 fWAR, 5.4 bWAR, 140 wRC+, 10.3 BB%, 20.5 K%, .339 BABIP, .176 ISO, -3 OAA

Rundown

Carlos Correa opted out of the three-year deal he signed just eight months months ago. When Correa is healthy, he’s one of the best–if not the best–offensive shortstops in the game. He has also held his own as an above-average shortstop over his career, even at 6-foot-4.

The 2021 season ended, and everyone knew a lockout would come. This was also expected to be a top shortstop free agent class, with Correa, Corey Seager, Javier Báez, Marcus Semien and Trevor Story leading the market. (Francisco Lindor was in this class, too, but he signed his extension a year earlier.)

Seager signed the largest deal ($325 million over 10 years), and Correa likely felt he deserved a similar deal. (He reportedly asked for more than that.) Post-lockout, with Seager, Semien and Báez already locked into deals, there was far less of a market of teams willing to shell out hundreds of millions of dollars for a star shortstop. Correa opted for a bet-on-yourself deal, inking a three-year, $105.3 million contract with player options for year two and three. If he got injured or didn’t perform up to snuff, he could just opt in for another $35 million, try to prove himself again–he’ll play the 2023 season at just 28 years old–then test the market if he did.

Well, he performed in 2022, and that’s why he opted out. Plain and simple. Though the Twins largely underperformed this season, it wasn’t because of Correa.

By wRC+, he was the top offensive shortstop in the game. He only knocked in 64 runs despite close to 50 extra-base hits (we call that a Lucas Duda), but he slashed .291/.366/.467/.833, a formidable line across 136 games.

Contract

Correa is opted to sign a long-term deal. This free agent shortstop market is probably about what 2021’s was, with Trea Turner, Dansby Swanson and Xander Bogaerts as the headline names. He’s still younger than them all, though, he is at least on their level if not better offensively. When he enter the market again, it would be with intentions of signing a deal worth over $200 million. He’d probably want something north of $300 million given Lindor’s, Seager’s and Tatis’s deals the last two years.

He always has a Twins-type deal to fall back on. If that is the case, the 2024 shortstop market is pretty bleak with Amed Rosario and not much else. Teams willing to spend hundreds of millions of dollars on a shortstop might have run its course by that point, though.

Recommendation

Correa would be a great grab for the Mets if he was interested in another Twins-type deal. (They should have been in on him last year to try and play third base.) However, that may not materialize to the spring–if it does all. The 28-year-old has been pretty adamant about wanting to stick at shortstop, so even then, it feels unlikely.

The Mets should be interested just about every top free agent, regardless of position, given their financial backing and desire to win now. Correa fits that bill. If Correa is interested in reciprocating that at a non-shortstop position? Great! But the Mets are left with their hands tied otherwise.