Adam Duvall

Position: OF Bats/Throws: R/R
Age: 35 (09/04/88)

2023 Traditional Stats: 92 G, 353 PA, .247/.303/.531/.834, 21 HR, 58 RBI, 24 2B, 22 BB, 4 SB
2023 Advanced Stats: 116 wRC+, 31.2 K%, 6.2 BB%, .299 BABIP, .306 xwOBA, 1.9 fWAR, 1.6 bWAR

Rundown

Adam Duvall was drafted by the San Francisco Giants in the 11th round of the 2010 MLB Draft. He subsequently signed with the club and spent a number of years in their farm system until he made his major league debut in the 2014 season.

He struggled mightily during his rookie campaign, as he batted .192/.234/.342 with three home runs in 77 plate appearances. Consequently, he spent much of the 2015 season with the Triple-A Sacramento River Cats, until he was traded to the Cincinnati Reds in late July.

The change of scenery proved to be advantageous for Duvall, who quickly made a good first impression with his new club. In 72 plate appearances in 2015, Duvall slugged five home runs with a 112 OPS+.

This performance paved the way for Duvall to gain regular playing time in the following season, and he took full advantage of it, nabbing his first All-Star selection. In 608 plate appearances, Duvall crushed 33 home runs with 103 RBIs, to go along with a 104 wRC+ and 2.6 fWAR. Duvall’s offensive prowess was accompanied by an equally impressive defensive showing among all three outfield positions, as he tallied 15 DRS, as well as 2 OAA.

Consequently, Duvall picked up right where he left off in 2017, eclipsing 30 home runs for a second consecutive season. In addition to his 31 home runs, he batted .249/.301/.480 with a 96 wRC+. He also put up another stellar defensive campaign, sporting an 11 DRS and 6 OAA among the three outfield positions.

After establishing himself as a solid outfield option on both sides of the ball, Duvall took a step back in the 2018 season, which provoked his eventual trade to the Atlanta Braves in late July. Between the Reds and Braves, Duvall batted a measly .195/.274/.365 with 15 home runs and 61 RBIs.

In the 2019 season that followed, Duvall only played in 41 games. He performed better than his previous season, as he batted .267/.315/.547 with 10 home runs and a 117 OPS+. Subsequently, he played 57 games in the shortened 2020 season, and put up similar numbers from his previous season. He batted .237/.301/.532 with 16 home runs, 33 RBIs, and a 114 OPS+.

He signed with the Miami Marlins ahead of the 2021 season, and he hit 22 home runs for them in 91 games. This led to his subsequent trade back to the Braves, where he hit 16 home runs with a 106 OPS+ in 55 games. His 19 DRS and 4 OAA among the three outfield positions earned him his first Gold Glove Award as a right fielder in the offseason.

He returned to the Braves for 2022, and put up a lackluster season in comparison to 2021. He batted .213/.276/.401 with 12 home runs, 36 RBIs, and an 86 OPS+ in 315 plate appearances.

The Boston Red Sox took a flyer on a rebound season for Duvall when they signed him to a one-year, $7 million deal in the offseason. This investment paid off for the Red Sox, as he batted .247/.303/.531 with 21 home runs and 58 RBIs. However, his defense took a step back, as he posted a -4 DRS and -3 OAA among the outfield positions.

At this point, Duvall finds himself as a 35-year-old free agent with a pedigree of being a power-hitting outfielder with solid defense. While his defense has taken a step back, he can still provide a team with serviceable defense to go along with his pop at the plate. In fact, he prevented five runs in the outfield in 2023, showcasing that he can still hold his own out there.

Contract

At this point in his career, Duvall will likely be in the market for a short-term deal. Due to his older age and declining defensive statistics, teams will likely be wary to commit to the outfielder long-term. However, the ability to be used as a designated hitter will only help his value, as he can always alternate between playing the field and serving as the designated hitter.

FanGraphs has his 2024 salary projected at $8 million, which is slightly more than the $7 million he received from the Red Sox for the 2023 season. This number checks out for Duvall, as his offensive improvement should set him up for a greater payday this offseason. I say that he will get a one-year deal in the range of $7-$10 million.

Recommendation

Due to their lack of outfield depth, I feel that the Mets should absolutely pursue Adam Duvall. In addition, their massive question mark at the designated hitter spot only amplifies the fit between the Mets and Duvall.

With the recent injury to Ronny Mauricio, the Mets are in need of more offense. In addition, Duvall’s presence would help to mitigate the inconsistent availability of outfielder Starling Marte. Further, the Mets’ depth chart at the outfield position is very scarce behind Brandon Nimmo and Starling Marte, so Duvall would provide a formidable option for 2024.

That said, I think that the Mets should kick the tires on Duvall, and pull the trigger if he is agreeable to a one-year contract for $8 million. This contract will not heavily impact their luxury tax situation, and it would not be hard to trade him if they do not live up to their playoff aspirations next season.