The Washington Nationals went into last offseason knowing they needed a quality starting pitcher to become a legitimate contender for 2019.

So what did the Nationals do?

They wasted very little time, signing the best starting pitcher on the market in Patrick Corbin. They gave Corbin a six-year, $140 million deal despite already having the costly duo of Stephen Strasburg and Max Scherzer under contract. That was coming off two straight years of going over the luxury tax and paying a penalty.

As you know, the Nationals won the 2019 World Series. Scherzer, Strasburg, and Corbin combined to throw 583.1 stellar innings during the regular season.

The Mets enter this offseason in desperate need of a postseason run in 2020. One of the biggest obstacles to improving is the fact that they only have roughly $17 million to spend before they hit the luxury tax threshold where penalties ensue.

First, let’s make it clear that first-time offenders of going over the luxury tax only have to pay a 20% tax on the actual overages.

Let’s say the Mets end up with a $220 million payroll in terms of the luxury tax for 2020 (these figures are calculated by a player’s average annual value, not necessarily what they are actually making in said season). The Mets would be $12 million over the threshold, meaning they would have to pay a tax of $2.4 million. That should be a pretty minor slap on the wrist in the grand scheme of things.

Another key point when suggesting that the Mets potentially go over the threshold for the 2020 season is that they have the deals of Yoenis Cespedes and David Wright coming off the books for 2021. They also have Wilson Ramos, Jed Lowrie, Justin Wilson, and Marcus Stroman coming off the books as free agents as well. The Mets’ payroll in terms of luxury tax for 2021 currently stands at only $131 million with the league max going up to $210 million.

This means that the Mets could go over the luxury tax in 2020, pay a minimal overage, then still have room in the budget for 2021 without really worrying about going over again.

With that being said, let’s look at five players the Mets should seriously consider signing this offseason:

Gerrit Cole, RHP

It should be pretty clear that Gerrit Cole is the best available player on the free agent market, and the Mets need a starting pitcher, so this is where I’m going to start.

The 29-year-old is due for a monster contract coming off a season in which he led the American League with a 2.50 ERA and 2.64 FIP. He also led the majors with a 185 ERA+, 13.8 K/9, and 326 strikeouts.

He’s thrown at least 200 innings the last three seasons and flourished (13.4 fWAR) in his two seasons with the Astros. Even if you give Cole a long-term deal (say seven years) he’s still going to be only 35 in his final year of the deal.

Yes, I’m well aware that it’s highly unlikely the Mets sign Cole, but can you imagine Cole, Jacob deGrom, and Noah Syndergaard as a rotation trio? The Nats won with their trio of Strasburg, Scherzer, and Corbin while the Astros got to the World Series with the trio of Cole, Justin Verlander, and Zack Greinke.

MLB Trade Rumors predicts Cole will get eight years, $256 million from the Angels. Obviously for the Mets to be involved, they would include deferrals much like they did with Jacob deGrom ($52.5M of deferrals in extension, this lowers AAV).

Anthony Rendon, 3B

I’m well aware that the Mets have Jeff McNeil, J.D. Davis, and Jed Lowrie as options at third base. However, Anthony Rendon is the type of player you shift a player’s position for.

The 29-year-old is an MVP finalist after hitting .319/.412/.598 with a league-leading 44 doubles, 34 home runs, and a major league best 126 RBIs. His 7.0 fWAR ranked fourth among NL position players and his 154 wRC+ ranked third.

Obviously, Rendon – career .290/.369/.490 hitter – would be a boost to any offense, but he would also help strengthen a Mets defense that struggled in 2019. He had 2 DRS and posted 2.0 UZR in 2019 at third base, he’s posted a negative DRS just once in his career (-6 in 2018), and he’s never posted a negative UZR in a full season. For his career, he has 18 DRS and a 6.8 UZR/150 in 6500 big league innings at third base.

MLBTR has Rendon getting seven years, $235 million from the Nationals. Again, the Mets would have to have this type of deal backloaded and with deferrals.

Yasmani Grandal, C

The Mets and Yasmani Grandal had mutual interest last offseason before the Amazin’s signed veteran Wilson Ramos to a two-year deal. Despite it not working out, Grandal told the New York Post in July that he would be open again this offseason to signing with the Mets if it was a fit.

While Ramos had a fine year offensively (14 HR, 73 RBI, 105 wRC+), he ranked 102nd out of 113 catchers in terms of defense according to Baseball Prospectus. Grandal ranked third on the list, so you can see the type of improvement they could make defensively with a swap at catcher. The Mets defense was one of the worst in baseball last year (-93 DRS) and they have few options to change that with so many starters already penciled in at certain positions.

Grandal wouldn’t just be a defensive upgrade, as he slashed .246/.380/.468 with 28 home runs and 77 RBIs for the Brewers in 2019. His wRC+ was 121 compared to the 105 wRC+ from Ramos, with his career number of 118 better than Ramos’s 104. Grandal is also a year younger than Ramos.

Of course, one obstacle would then be the Mets needing to trade Ramos. He’s due to make $9.25 million in 2020 and has a club option at $10 million for 2021. A team looking for offense behind the plate could certainly show interest.

Grandal is projected to get four years, $68 million from the Reds by MLBTR.

Will Harris, RHP

Left-handed Will Smith received the qualifying offer from the Giants and there’s belief that he could take the $17.8 million payday which would leave righty Will Harris as arguably the best reliever on the market. It’s no secret the Mets bullpen was a mess in 2019, their 4.99 ERA ranked 26th in baseball.

Despite being one of the best relievers available, the contract for Harris should still be modest given he enters free agency at 35 years old. The former ninth round pick posted a 1.50 ERA, 3.15 FIP, 0.93 WHIP, and allowed only 42 hits in 60 innings for the Astros. He also struck out 62 compared to just 14 walks.

The production wasn’t a fluke for Harris as he has a 2.84 ERA, 3.03 FIP, and 1.08 WHIP over eight major league seasons. He also has a 4.43 SO/W and has handled both righties (.652 OPS) and lefties (.560 OPS) pretty well.

MLBTR has Harris getting two years, $18 million from the Cubs.

Collin McHugh, RHP

I know, there’s far better free agents available than Collin McHugh available, but I believe he’s a really good fit for the Mets (plus I had to pick someone that is realistic). The Mets need bullpen help as we noted, and McHugh also has experience as a starter which helps a New York team that has weak depth in the area.

The former Mets draft pick had a down year in 2019, posting a 4.70 ERA, 4.43 FIP, and 1.23 WHIP in 74.2 innings that spanned eight starts and 27 relief appearances. He fared better as a reliever however, with a 2.67 ERA and .640 OPS against in 33.2 relief innings. He struck out 82 batters overall, but had a career-high 3.6 BB/9.

McHugh, 32, was traded by the Mets to the Rockies back in 2013. He moved onto the Astros in 2014, finding success as a starter immediately with a 2.73 ERA in 154 innings that year.

Getting a versatile guy like McHugh gives the Mets depth in two spots where they need it and maybe opens up Seth Lugo for more late inning opportunities.

Final Thoughts

Do I think that Mets will go over the luxury tax ($208M, currently estimated at $191) in 2020? No, I don’t, but they absolutely should if they want to be serious World Series contenders. The wiggle room ($17M) and minor league talent (baseball’s 28th ranked farm) simply isn’t there to build a contender without going over.

That being said, I don’t think Cole or Rendon are realistic. But there’s talented starters in free agency beyond Cole in Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, and Jake Odorizzi. The key is they should sign one of these types, not a Cole Hamels, Julio Teheran, Wade Miley, Rick Porcello, etc.

As for third base, Josh Donaldson is a really good option that’s available, and even Mike Moustakas could help the Mets get better. McNeil has shown that he can play third base, but the Mets outfield combination is McNeil, Brandon Nimmo, and Michael Conforto with J.D. Davis starting vs lefties and being the fourth guy. Think about the depth you have when someone with the offensive skillset of Davis isn’t starting on most days.

Signing Grandal and trading Ramos feels unlikely, but I believe it’s one of the best available ways for the Mets to be better in 2020 without spending a ton of money. Grandal is a boost on offense and defense. If the Mets don’t go that route, there’s actually a solid market (Russell Martin, Jason Castro, Alex Avila, Robinson Chirinos) of good defensive veterans that would be upgrades over Tomas Nido.

The Mets fixing the bullpen is a huge topic and that seems to be the focus of most after it was their weak spot in 2019. They need to acquire at least two guys in my mind, with at least one of them having high leverage experience and the other being versatile. It’s unlikely the Mets spend much here, but there’s quite a few relatively inexpensive solid relief pieces in free agency including Drew Pomeranz, Chris Martin, Daniel Hudson, Steve Cishek, Craig Stammen, Dellin Betances, Pedro Strop, and Brandon Kintzler.

It’s time for the Mets’ front office and ownership to tell baseball to “come get us” with their actions.