Greg H. asks…
If the Mets could keep and sign only one, who would you give an extension to: Daniel Murphy or Yoenis Cespedes?
Connor replies…
This is a really difficult question when you consider all of the moving pieces involved. Clearly, at least this year, Cespedes has been a drastically more valuable player than Murphy, both offensively and defensively. However, he will cost up to five times as much in total money than Murphy will.
Cespedes is also in an interesting situation due to a once-ingenious clause in his contract. He is required to be released from his contract five days after the World Series. In contrast, the Mets will (presumably) just allow Murphy’s contract to expire. He will become a free agent, but without having to be release. And for Cespedes, that’s the kicker. If the Mets can’t re-sign him before releasing him, Cespedes will have to be released, and then can’t be re-signed until May 15 of next year due to rules in the Collective Bargaining Agreement.
This puts the Mets in a very tough spot because they are almost certainly going to have to overpay. On the other hand, Murphy’s price will depend on the ebbs and flows of the free agent market.
It’s important to look at thee context surrounding both of these players, including what losing them would mean for the team. So…
If the Mets lost Cespedes… the center field position would become a huge question mark again. While Michael Conforto and Curtis Granderson have stepped up this season and played quite well, Juan Lagares hasn’t. He’s had a good month or so with the bat, but you can’t exactly say he’s proven himself to be even an average MLB hitter, not to mention his diminished (but still quite good!) outfield play. Perhaps Terry Collins can play Granderson in center sometimes to get Michael Cuddyer in the lineup, but the resulting outfield defense would probably be just too awful for that to work every day.
If the Mets lost Murphy… the effect wouldn’t be nearly as drastic. In fact, it would allow Wilmer Flores to play second base for good, while still giving the Mets some financial flexibility to spend on a shortstop. Or the team could keep Flores at shortstop and plug in Dilson Herrera, who has arguably an even greater offensive potential than Murphy.
Juan Lagares is definitely the kind of piece a winning team has, but not one who starts 150 games, at least with the offensive production he is putting up now. Even with his struggles in very limited major league playing time, I’d rather have Dilson Herrera’s bat in the lineup than Lagares.
Next up is the contracts that Murphy and Cespedes will likely require to keep them in Mets uniforms. For Murphy, my best guess is somewhere in the three-year range with total money anywhere from $30 million to $45 million. For Cespedes, it’s a much wider range, especially considering the Met will have to extend him before he hits the free agent market. At best, he’ll need something around six years, $100 million. At worst (for the Mets, that is), he could get seven years for $150 million. With the added leverage he has right now, he should get something in the upper half of that range, but it remains to be seen.
Deals for neither Murphy nor Cespedes are ideal, but they are the reality. Rarely do the six or seven-year deals for players approaching 30 work out. On the other side, Murphy is really only ten percent above average offensively, while Cespedes is 30 to 40 percent above average. Murphy’s wRC+ and OPS+ are awesome for a second baseman, but when you consider his defense and the other available options, is $15 million a year really justified? Probably not.
Neither seem to be particularly great values, which leads me to believe that, in this hypothetical scenario, Cespedes would be the way to go. Along with Lucas Duda, Cespedes will solidify the heart of the order in a way that Murphy can’t. Above average players like Murphy are great complimentary pieces on a winning roster, but not the kind of pieces you should really make big investments in too often.
Also, it’s important to remember that the Mets can may be able to find Murphy-like production, whether it’s through directly replacing him or making marginal upgrades at multiple positions. Production on the level of Cespedes, however, is virtually impossible to find without spending a good deal of money or developing a great prospect.
Through it all, this scenario comes down to one question that the front office would have to answer: Do you want to make an investment that will look great early but likely tie up the team later on, or would you rather go with a safer, less expensive piece with far less upside?
Leave your thoughts in the comments below, and thank you Greg for your outstanding question.
