Does playing Duda every single day actually make sense?
The Mets offseason can only be described in one word: decent. The millions in payroll that was supposedly freed up appears to be just a mirage, and Sandy Alderson was unable to secure the big star fans think the team so desperately needs. The offseason that was supposed to be about getting that last big piece or two to prop up the offense didn’t happen. However, that doesn’t mean the offense can’t put up sufficient numbers for a playoff run. It will just take a little more creativity on the part of Terry Collins and his staff.
Every Met fan knows the offense is the team’s weak point. Every ounce of production needs to be squeezed out of the roster — at least for the position players — in order to be a top-notch team. Last year, Terry Collins did the exact opposite. He stuck with “his guys” through thick and thin. This meant playing certain players during slumps, while hurt, or the worst offense: routinely putting players in position to fail. Collins really needs to reverse this if the Mets want an above-average offense. The odds of that happening? Slim, but its worth going through what the optimal offense might look like. Let’s take a peak at the trouble areas.
First Base
Collins will most likely look at Lucas Duda‘s 30 home run season in 2014 and see no reason for him to not play every single night. While Duda certainly did have a fantastic season — the best of his career — the production from the first base position was not maximized. Duda his .273/.372/.543 with 28 home runs in 471 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers. However, against left-handers, he batted just .180/.264/.252. This is somewhat in line with his .212/.292/.317 career line against lefties. So why play him against pitchers he obviously is unable to hit against? Does he get a free pass because he hits right-handers so well?
This is what separates the truly smart teams from those stuck on pre-conceived, outdated notions about playing time and production. Take a look at the Oakland Athletics, for example. They obviously can’t afford to buy big-name players at every position. What they do is tell their players to accept roles in platoons. The result is maximum production out of every position, putting players in position to succeed and allowing the A’s to compete with high-payroll teams.
The point is, Collins needs to get rid of the mindset of “Duda has earned it.” Otherwise, it’s just not going to work.
Left and Right Field
This situation is much less clear-cut than that at first base. Not only does Collins have to deal with various platoon splits and streaky sluggers, but he also has defense to keep in mind, far more than at first base.
In right field, Michael Cuddyer could easily post a 120 to 130 wRC+. That’s awesome production, and Cuddyer’s offensive potential this season is quite underrated. However, that big boost Cuddyer brings with the bat could be severely diminished by his work (or lack thereof) with the glove. Collins has to both get his bat in the lineup while also minimizing his exposure on defense. This should mean playing time at first base, at which Cuddyer has logged over 2000 innings in his career. Cuddyer’s platoon splits don’t merit a platoon, but his -28 Defensive Runs Saved in the outfield over the last three seasons are too much to ignore. In this way, the problems at first and in the outfield are very connected. Think about that for a minute and then take a look at Cuddyer and Duda’s career platoon splits side by side, and you should see an obvious solution.
Collins must also be willing to do the same for Curtis Granderson who, while he reversed his platoon splits last season, has an OPS 149 points higher against righties than lefties for his career.
Luckily for Collins, the Mets seem to have a solid bench that can fill these voids. Eric Campbell tore up lefties in the minor leagues and has shown outstanding versatility in the field. If there is one non-starter who absolutely needs to break camp with the Mets, it’s Campbell. The Mets also added John Mayberry Jr. to provide some power off the bench. He has a career .857 OPS against left-handed pitching, certainly good enough for a fourth or fifth outfielder slot.
How it all comes together
If put together correctly, these pieces could create an above-average offense. Here is what that might look like against both lefties and righties.
While this is clearly not going to happen, or at least not to this extent, it’s interesting to think about how many runs the team would save by doing this. My best guess would be somewhere between 20 and 30, although that’s if no one has an unexpected (good or bad) season. That is quite an impressive improvement without actual changes being made to the roster.
Sandy Alderson has quietly put together a roster that fits very well together on paper. Of course, that hasn’t stopped Terry Collins before.
