The Mets have more than a back-up plan should Daniel Murphy be moved in the offseason, they quite possibly have upgrades. It’s still a gamble though, Murphy’s production is solid and he has sustained it over the course of several years. In 126 games at second base this year, he batted (.302) with 34 doubles, 9 home runs and 53 RBI’s. A critical issue with the Mets offense this year was the inability to hit with men on base. However, Daniel’s numbers over the last few years suggest he’s part of the solution to that problem, particularly in high pressure scoring situations. Since 2011, he’s posted remarkable slashline of (.337/.404/.902) when there are runners in scoring position with two outs.
The caveat to Murphy’s offensive talent is his defense. In a recent ESPN article, Mark Simon noted that, Murphy has been at -10 or worse in Defensive Runs Saved for three straight seasons, meaning that his glove “neutralizes” his offensive upside. Overall, Daniel is a unique asset and I do not agree wholeheartedly with Simon’s analysis. Murphy possesses a set of tools that does come with extreme highs and lows, but the net result of his production is still valuable. So, if he were traded this offseason, what options do the Mets have internally?
One possibility is Dilson Herrera, considered by most scouts to be a top 100 prospect in all of baseball. The 20 year old Columbian received a surprise call-up from Double-A Binghamton in September and showed a lot of promise. Herrera only hit .220 during his brief stint, but managed to crank three home runs, a triple and eight RBI in just 59 at-bats. He flashed the tremendous bat speed that evaluators raved about, but he needs more polishing, which is why he’ll likely start 2015 at Triple-A Las Vegas. The idea of trading a productive Murphy before Herrera has proven he is ready for a full time promotion brings a ton of risk. Then there’s the ever forgotten man, Wilmer Flores.
I say forgotten man because Flores didn’t burst on to the scene like many fans expected and his name began to disappear more and more from conversations regarding the future of the Mets. In all fairness though, he played in another stratosphere when his glove was at second base this year. The numbers are relatively similar to Murphy’s, except for one category, power. Get this, Wilmer’s (.563) slugging percentage was (.266) points above his (.297) batting average. That isolated power (Batting Average – Slugging) was tops in the major leagues among any player who swung a bat as a second basemen. Wilmer played 18 games at the keystone, so there isn’t a tremendous sample size to evaluate him off of, but every scout and organizational evaluator believed he was capable of that production from the moment he was drafted.
Wally Backman stated that Flores was the best RBI guy he ever managed, which is why he often batted the young Venezuelan third in the lineup. The defense was never expected to be a premium tool of Wilmer’s, and while his efforts at shortstop were commendable, his glove, footwork and range all improved significantly at second base. Couple that with a powerful arm and he posted some nice little web gems at second, like this one.
The defensive confidence certainly had an impact at the plate, as Flores’ wRC+ of 152 and wOBA of (.385) were better than all qualified second baggers. Again, I’ll reel in the enthusiasm because it’s only 18 games, but it’s fascinating where advanced sabermetrics rank him during that time nonetheless. His extra base hit totals during that span, spread over a conservative season of 150 games, would give him 50 doubles and 25 home runs, respectably.
By comparison, Murphy is more of a pure hitter, but Flores wasn’t far behind and his bat has way more pop than Daniel. Wilmer’s performance at second base was what the Mets were hoping to see from Dilson Herrera someday, so if it’s already here, do the Mets take a gamble and hand the reigns to Flores? This is a critical decision for GM Sandy Alderson, make the wrong move and it could either weaken the Mets offense or impair player development. Make the right move and its money well spent or tremendous bang for the buck.
So, is Wilmer Flores the next big second baseman in NY? Let us know your thoughts.
