Cameron asks…
It looks like the Mets have done all of their heavy lifting for the offseason. Can they win 90 games again in 2016 without a bat like Yoenis Cespedes on the roster?
Dr. Dooby replies…
While bringing back Yoenis Cespedes would likely have increased the odds for more wins in 2016 it wasn’t a slam dunk. The severe risk attached to that type of player as he approaches his mid 30s makes any deal beyond 3 or 4 years highly volatile. Especially for a team that is unable to risk 25 percent or more of its payroll as a “sunken cost”. Cespedes is an above average regular, but certainly not a “franchise caliber” star player you´d want to sign to a long term deal.
In my estimation, this current Mets roster – as it is – looks like a 90-win team on paper and in conservative projections. And since there is no Bryce Harper or Max Scherzer or Giancarlo Stanton star player in there who is expected to carry the load pretty much by himself as a 6+ win caliber player, it´s a far less riskier projection than for top-heavy teams that are strongly dependent on good health to a few elite performers and whose seasons can easily be derailed. That is less likely if your strength is in quality depth – even with a lack of star power. It´s easier to replace a solid 3-win player than it is to replace an elite-level 7-win player if you have a 90-win outlook.
Basically, under normal circumstances, the 2016 Mets should win between 85 and 95 games with 90 as sort of a mid-range expectancy, assuming standard performance, no rash of catastrophic injuries and no major breakouts.
You would expect Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard to perform like they did in 2015, and it’s not unreasonable to see all three perform significantly better and at top twenty pitching levels. Now, if one or two of these three steps up towards elite level, then the Mets´ win expectancy increases as well. Same for the offense which figures to be average and has a lot more depth now than it had entering 2015 – which eliminates the risk of playing AAA lineups extensively.
Thanks to their scheduling advantage and pretty safe outlook, I´d bet on the 2016 Mets at the very least winning a Wild Card spot, if not repeating as the NL East champions.
