The Mets were just a .500 team in the first half of the 2015 season. It wasn’t until the second half of last year that the team transformed itself into the juggernaut that would eventually win the National League pennant and earn a trip to the World Series. This year, the Mets will hope for the same second-half outcome– and they will face a favorable route to doing so.
The Mets have 74 games after the All-Star break. While only 35 of those games will be played at home, 42 of their games will be played against teams currently at or below .500. This includes 13 games against the Phillies, six against the Braves and Diamondbacks and two inter-league series against the Yankees and Twins.
They only have 14 games against teams currently in playoff spots: A three-game set against the Cubs in July, a four-game series in San Francisco in August and seven games against the Nationals in September. That’s it.
Conversely, the Nationals will have nine games against playoff teams in their first 15 games after the break alone. They have 24 of those games total and 40 games against teams under.500 in 72 games. They’ll have a much tougher inter-league schedule, with games against the Indians and the Orioles.
Since the establishment of the second Wild Card in 2012, the average number of wins for a second Wild Card team is 90.75. The Mets would need to go 45-33 from here on out to insure that they win 91 games. This schedule definitely does not hurt the Mets’ chances in that respect. And if they were able to win three of four against Washington, they’d only be two games back at the All-Star break with this favorable path ahead.
