The Mets have three big holes due to key players going down with significant injuries. Lucas Duda has a stress fracture in his back. David Wright has a herniated disc in his neck in addition to his spinal stenosis. And Travis d’Arnaud has a torn rotator cuff in his throwing shoulder.
With this in mind, the Mets have to answer a few questions as the trade deadline approaches:
- Are any of the three players likely to return?
- Do the Mets have viable internal options to replace that player?
- What is out there on the trade market?
Working backwards, the biggest name on the trade market appears to be Jonathan Lucroy if you put any credence into what Jon Heyman, Joel Sherman and others are reporting.
Lucroy is having a terrific season, hitting .304/.361/.515 with nine home runs and 28 RBI. It shouldn’t be a surprise that he is playing this well as he typically performs better in even numbered years than odd numbered years since becoming a full time starter in 2011. In 2012, his OPS+ was 132; in 2014, it was 131, and this year it is 132. In short, we can reasonably expect Lucroy to keep this up.
The Milwaukee backstop is just as proficient defensively as he is offensively. Behind the plate, he’s earned a reputation for being an excellent pitch framer. He also has a powerful arm and has gunned down 42.9% of would-be base stealers. Simply put, Lucroy is as much of a complete catcher as there is in the game. He’s also a massive upgrade over d’Arnaud’s replacements.
Since d’Arnaud’s last game on April 25th, Rene Rivera and Kevin Plawecki have combined to hit .190/.273/.289. While they have been good pitch framers, and Rivera has been a stabilizing force behind the plate, they have both established themselves as poor hitting backup catchers. The Mets need a starting catcher that can hit. That was supposed to be d’Arnaud.
With that said, I believe the Mets should take a pass on Lucroy despite the obvious upgrade he’d give the Mets over any of their current catchers.
With d’Arnaud already swinging a bat in rehab games and now catching as of Saturday, he is ever so close to rejoining the team. Officially, the Mets must activate him no later than Sunday, June 26th when his 20 day rehab assignment ends.
Assuming he’s healthy, d’Arnaud can continue being a good overall catcher for the Mets. He’s a better than average pitch framer, is coming off a .268/.340/.485 season, and even hit three homeruns in the postseason last year. The only issue that bears watching is if he can throw out base stealers with his injured shoulder. With the way Mets pitchers hold on base runners, that may not be as big an issue as one might normally believe.
With his injury history, there may come a point in time that the Mets may decide to move on from d’Arnaud. However, now is not that time and the Mets have bigger issues anyway.
Mets assistant GM John Ricco gave a vote of confidence to d’Arnaud on Saturday, as reported by Ken Davidoff of the NY Post, and he basically shot down any rumors that the Mets are looking to move on from him.
“We haven’t really talked about going out and getting catching. That’s not something that’s on our list right now,” Ricco said.
“I think between Travis and Plawecki, we’re still very confident both of them are going to be very good players… The injuries are obviously something Travis is going to have to overcome to stay on the field. But between the two of those guys, I think we’re still really confident that we have two good ones.”
Then of course, there’s one more important factor to consider regarding going after Lucroy… The price.
Given his overall offensive and defensive prowess, plus a ridiculously team-friendly contract that pays him $4 million this year and $5.25 million in 2017, the Mets would have to part with their two best prospects or maybe one of them plus Zack Wheeler.
Sorry, that’s too steep a price to upgrade a position that may not even need upgrading if Travis d’Arnaud returns and starts delivering on all that promise.
James Loney has been a fine stopgap at first base, but he’s still only hitting .250/.302/.350 and is not a long term solution.
Wilmer Flores has done a fine job at third base, hitting .389/.450/.500 and he has been much better with his approach at the plate. But he also has an unsustainably high .500 BABIP pointing to a regression back to the .255/.292/.385 career hitter he is.
Overall, the Mets have some uncertainty at first and third with no one really knowing when or if Wright and Duda will return this season.
Accordingly, the Mets should potentially use their resources toward reinforcing third and/or first base. That’s not Lucroy… UNLESS the Mets feel comfortable paying the huge price he’ll command on the trade market to play first base – a position he has only played 43 times in his seven year career.
