Those no-good, downright mean-spirited, fake news spouting folks at FanGraphs currently project the New York Mets to win just 83 games in 2017 and lose the NL East by seven games while missing the postseason and Wild Card by one game. Just kidding about the intro folks, FanGraphs does a fine job.
Just like any set of projections, they are only as good as the input data which can sometimes be very subjective and we have no idea what those data points are. Also keep in mind that these projections can change as team circumstances change, so if the Mets were to bolster their bullpen maybe that can improve their fortunes by a game or two.
Still, color me a bit disappointed by this initial calculation based on how strong the Mets were last season when the team was relatively healthy. The Mets head into 2017 with essentially the same exact offense they ended the 2016 season with, and yes that was an offense that finished the year ranked 26th in Runs Scored, 17th in Slugging Pct., and 17th in OPS.
However, those rankings were greatly impacted by a slew of injuries to 7 of their 8 players in the team’s starting lineup. Only Curtis Granderson was able to avoid the disabled list in 2016. Yoenis Cespedes, Asdrubal Cabrera and Jose Reyes all had a DL stint, while David Wright, Lucas Duda, Travis d’Arnaud and Neil Walker missed huge swaths of time and three of them were shutdown for the season.
If you were to look at the Mets’ MLB ranking in Runs Scored by Month, it tells the story of just how impacted the team was by all these injuries, but it also illustrates just how good they were in April, August and September when they were essentially at 80-100 percent strength.
April – 10th
May – 28th
June – 30th
July – 20th
August – 8th
September – 5th
After Cespedes, Reyes and Cabrera all returned from the DL, there was a five week span that began in mid August and lasted through mid September that the Mets were the number one ranked MLB offense in runs scored.
Let’s talk about the bullpen real quick as that seems to be the biggest source of consternation right now. Even if the Mets were to lose Jeurys Familia for a month – and that’s not written in stone yet – this was one of the top bullpens in baseball last year with the 6th best ERA and 5th best WHIP in MLB so why all the angst?
Yes, we still have some work to do, I’ll give you that. But as I reported last week I had a very good source tell me that the Mets were not out on Jerry Blevins and that the two sides were still very much engaged. Also heard that Blevins has told friends he wants to return to the Mets. I like the sound of both those things.
Then on Friday, I heard that the Mets were one of the most aggressive suitors for Craig Breslow and that they also reached out to Joe Blanton. Something’s definitely cooking and the Mets are not done yet. If you don’t think Sandy Alderson wants to win as badly as we do you really need to go find yourself a good shrink.
As for the rotation, what else can I say that I haven’t said already? They are young. They are exciting and oozing with All Star potential. And they also have a lot of health concerns. I think they’re all going to be fine, but if they’re not, I’m so glad we have Gsellman and Lugo.
The Mets are going to be fine. The bullpen is going to be fine. The rotation is going to be fine. Having an extra 30-homer bat in the lineup is going to be fine. Terry Collins is going to make me pull my hair out. But no matter what, our New York Mets will win 90+ games in 2017… Put it in the books.
