Fan Shot: The Case For Acquiring Francisco Lindor

Fan Shot by Ryan Schlachter

I’d like to preface this by saying that there should never be a reason to “make a case for Francisco Lindor”. He’s a franchise level talent that any team would welcome in the heartbeat if they lived in an ideal world. 

That being said, people on Twitter last night were suggesting that it would be counterproductive to acquire Lindor via trade when there are other holes to fill and while I understand that, if you have a chance to get a talent like Lindor, you do it 100 out of 100 times.

Many people have suggested waiting for Lindor to hit free agency at the end of this season, but with money down across the sport and the Indians almost certainly not retaining him, Lindor will be traded this year and we learned very quickly this year from the Dodgers that pending free agency can’t be assumed. 

Offense

Let’s start with his offense. At 26 years old, Lindor is just getting set to enter his prime. While the Mets led all of baseball in batting average, they also finished top five in the majors in OBP, SLG and OPS. Aside from their woes with RISP, the Mets were a very good offense in 2020 and in 2019 as well (top six in the NL in each of those categories). 

One could suggest that upgrading the Mets offense isn’t a top priority, but while looking at the free agents hitters most linked to the Mets (Springer, Realmuto, Ozuna), they all inject immediate firepower into the lineup. 

With a 28.4 career WAR over six seasons, Lindor has posted a career line of .285/.346/.488/.833. In 2019, Amed Rosario seemed poised to breakout in a real way after posting a .289/.323/.434/.758 line in 152 games at short in 2019.

However, he regressed in the shortened season and shared time with Andres Gimenez, as the Mets shortstops combined to hit .258/.311/.387.698 in 2020.

Outside of the shortened 2020 season, Lindor has eclipsed 30 HRs and 40+ doubles in each of the last three seasons. The switch-hitting shortstop has more than twice as many ABs as a righty, but his career SLG & OPS are pretty even from both sides. The lefty-heavy Mets would welcome the power from the right side that Lindor would immediately bring to the lineup. 

Defense

Defensively, Lindor already has two Gold Gloves under his belt. OAA is an advanced stat that measures multiple factors including range, speed of the runner and difficulty of the play. You can read more on it here.

Since 2017, Lindor has 36 OAA (Outs Above Average), good for third in the majors behind only Nick Ahmed and Andrelton Simmons at the shortstop position. Since being called up, Rosario has posted a -21 OAA. Gimenez, while proving to be a very reliable defensive shortstop, posted 2 OAA this season at SS (Lindor was worth 5 OAA). Mets second basemen combined for a 6 OAA in 2020 and so putting Lindor at SS would be an immediate defensive upgrade for the middle infield. 

Again, a case shouldn’t have to be made for how good Lindor is, but instead the question is he worth trading for right now?

I think he is and you should too. COVID has left teams working with less money than they normally have (even the Yankees). Lindor is set to make about $22M this year in arbitration and the Indians will certainly be looking to shave payroll. The market is going to be a much different one than we’ve seen in past years. Combine this with the fact that Lindor is in a walk year, so the Indians may be forced to sell for a lower package than normal.

Between the Indians looking to get a return before Lindor walks and them being able to shed payroll by dealing him, it makes sense for the Mets to get him now. 

Potential Trade Packages

While Brodie Van Wagenen’s trades since his takeover have put a dent in the Mets farm system, there’s still more than enough pieces to get a deal done. The Indians will most certainly want major league ready talent to come back in a deal alongside prospects.

Rosario and Gimenez would both probably be enough from the major league side, although I’d prefer to hold onto Gimenez due to his versatility defensively.

For prospects, Ronny Mauricio (SS), Brett Baty (3B), Mark Vientos (3B) and Thomas Szapucki (LHP) are all viable trade chips and a package consisting of two of these combined with Rosario should be enough to get a deal like this done. For those not wanting to part with Mauricio, I understand the objection, but realistically, we’d be thrilled if Mauricio turned out to be what Lindor currently is and for Baty, most scouts don’t think he’ll stay at third base long term. The only other logical place to put him would be first base and we know that won’t happen with Dom Smith and Pete Alonso on the roster. 

Would this answer all of the Mets’ problems?

No, there would still be much work to do. Still, something not to be taken for granted is what a trade for Lindor would do for the fan base. Desperate to get back to the World Series and already in jubilee to be saying farewell to the Wilpons, Mets fans would be electrified instantly by a deal like this.

Both Steven Cohen and Sandy Alderson know that the team is positioned to win now and while some fans may not want to give up more prospects, the overhaul of the analytics department and infusion of cash that can be used to sign international free agents gives me hope that we can replenish the farm system over time. As Casey Stern says, “prospects are cool, parades are cooler”.