As part of his Mets offseason plan, Mark Simon of ESPN New York does an excellent job of constructing his version of a Mets team that can make the playoffs next season. As part of his initiative he proposes the following:
The Mets would be well-suited to find a suitor for Colon early this offseason and accept a deal in which the return was minimal, so long as the contract, or most of it (one year at $11 million) is off the books.
That frees up the money for the Mets to make one dip into the free-agent market. It also provides the rotation spot that Matt Harvey steps into. Colon was worth -0.1 WAR this season when you combine his pitching (0.5) and his hitting/fielding (-0.6). If Harvey is anything close to what he was two seasons ago, his return will make for a four to five win increase.
As Adam Rubin noted in late July, the Mets’ payroll is almost certainly going to increase just from the natural progression of its arbitration-eligible players. But seeing how the Mets operate, it’s hard to expect a significant payroll boost.
The Mets can make little moves here and there to deal with that, with non-tender candidates including Eric Young Jr. and Ruben Tejada.
While I do expect the Mets to do exactly that this offseason, I have some reservations.
Regarding Colon, is it prudent to trade him before knowing how Harvey looks this Spring? Despite what you think of Colon, he did win 15 games for a 79 win team, He’s also the only pitcher to toss 200 to more innings.
Do we really trade that just for the benefit of salary relief and a minimal return? And if we have to eat half of his contract just so we can get a little something worthwhile in return, it defeats the purpose of creating the flexibility to free up $11 million to put towards an impact hitter.
As for Murphy, I find it ironic that Sandy Alderson summed up the difference between this current team and a playoff contender next season is 40-50 more runs which he plans to address this offseason.
I mention the above because Murphy led the Mets in runs scored and if we were to subtract his production, the run differential we’re trying to address jumps from 50 runs to 130 runs. That’s quite the task…
So while it’s likely that both of these two will be traded, I do hope there’s some accounting for replacing their production that isn’t predicated on a wing and a prayer.
