Examining The Decisive Game 3 Pitching Matchup

After a victory in a win-or-go-home Game 2, the New York Mets will face elimination once again Sunday night in Game 3. After a stellar performance by Jacob deGrom Saturday, the Mets will turn to their third starter, Chris Bassitt. On the other side of things, the San Diego Padres will turn to the right-handed Joe Musgrove.

Joe Musgrove 

After coming over from the Pittsburgh Pirates, Musgrove’s performances were rewarded with a five-year, $100 million extension in August. He has been well worth it so far, emerging as a terrific number two or three starter a part of a strong San Diego rotation. His 2.93 ERA this season is a pretty good indicator of his performance as his underlying xERA and xFIP of 3.27 and 3.49, respectively, indicate those results have been warranted.

Musgrove has pretty much done everything well a successful pitcher needs to do. He limits hard contact, strikes hitters out, and does not walk batters. This evident by an average exit velocity and hard hit rates that are both above the league’s 88th percentile. His strikeout rate is a little higher than his career average, and his walk rate is one of the lowest of his career. These figures are good for the league’s 65th percentile (K%) and 82nd percentile (BB%).

The California native is not the hardest thrower, but blends his top pitches terrifically. He has thrown four different pitches – slider, four-seam fastball, cutter, and curveball – at least 19% of the time. Each of these pitches have worked superbly for Musgrove, none of the four have a BAA over .229. Musgrove blends his pitches well and it keeps hitters guessing resulting in strikeouts looking and soft contact.

Over his career, his splits have been relatively even. Both right-handed and left-handed hitters batting about .240 off him. This year, for whatever reason, right-handed hitters have actually fared much better against Musgrove. Right-handed batters are hitting .254, meanwhile, .203 by left handers.

Overall, throughout the career, the Mets have always had his number. In 29 1/3 innings pitched against New York, he owns a 5.83 ERA and has given up a BAA of .283. This year, the Mets faced Musgrove once, on July 24th in Queens, he allowed four runs from five hits and two walks over 5 1/3 innings. Hopefully this theme continues Sunday night.

Lastly, like his teammates Yu Darvish and Blake Snell, Musgrove has been lights out lately. Over 22 innings in his last four starts, he has allowed only one run and 15 hits while striking out 27 batters (0.48 ERA, 2.48 FIP). He is in arguably the best form of his career entering Sunday night.

Chris Bassitt

Throughout the season, Bassitt has been the Mets’ most reliable starting pitcher. He has pitched to a 3.42 ERA with metrics that back up that figure has been deserved. He set career highs in strikeouts and innings pitched en route to a season that any team would want to see from a third starter.

Like Musgrove, Bassitt has relied heavily on inducing soft contact. This evident by an average exit velocity and hard hit rates that are both above the league’s 87th percentile. Also, much like his counterpart, Bassitt has done a great job blending five different pitches, keeping the opposition on his toes.

As has been harped on, Bassitt made two starts against San Diego this season. Each have gone much differently. In San Diego, he allowed seven runs and eight hits while walking two over 3 1/3 innings. Then, in Queens, he held the Padres to two runs via four hits while striking out 11 over seven innings.

Bassitt will hope Sunday evening’s start against San Diego will go much like his second against the Padres did earlier in the season. And not like it did in his first start at Petco Park went or his last start of the regular season against the Braves. As has been well documented, in Bassitt’s biggest start in a Mets’ uniform, he struggled tremendously in Atlanta (2 2/3 innings pitched, four runs). He had control issues and got burned with runners on base.

Against a Padres time that seems unwilling to swing the bat at time, Bassitt must have his best control. As a whole this season, his 68th percentile BB% indicates he has had pretty strong control. The Mets certainly hope this is the case tonight, as San Diego’s offense thrives on forcing walks and being very patient at the plate. However, when they do swing, they can be vulnerable.

Final Thoughts

On the surface, it appears the Padres should have the edge here when it comes to starting pitching. Musgrove has had a stronger year than Bassitt. Though, as Mets’ fans has seen in the past, sometimes what appears on the surface has absolutely no bearing on what actually happens. Regardless, Sunday night pins two strong pitchers against eachother.