Quick! Without cheating – how many home runs has Edwin Díaz given up this season?
Man, it feels like a million. There was of course that one against Marcell Ozuna to blow the game against the Braves.
And oh, who could forget the demoralizing two-run shot by Aaron Hicks when he blew the game against the hated Yankees.
And yeah, then there was… Actually, that was it. Two home runs this season. It seems Mets fans have been overly sensitized to Edwin Díaz’s blunders here in his second year in Flushing. And rightfully so – after being acquired in the now-infamous trade with Seattle, he’s been a huge disappointment, exacerbated by the superstar-type development Mets fans have seen from Jarred Kelenic, who was sent to the Mariners in the deal.
Of course, for many reading this article now, no amount of nerdy graphs and charts can change what the eye test has showed them. He can’t show up in the big moments, he can’t be trusted with the game on the line… some even go as far as saying he should never close a game for the Mets again.
But has he really crumbled in these big moments? Sure, we’ve already seen a couple of examples, but on the whole, the numbers again don’t fit the narrative. The general understanding seems to be that he can’t come in and lock down a tough situation, but Díaz’s LOB% (left on base percentage) of 90.1% is by far the highest of his career, and ranks 3rd in MLB among relievers who have thrown at least as many innings as he has.
The question for the Mets, really, is – what’s the alternative? Díaz leads all qualified Mets relievers this season in WAR, K/9 FIP, and xFIP, and is 2nd in ERA. Sure, his save stats don’t look great – he’s blown 3 saves in 5 chances. But those stats are highly context-driven for a pitcher, almost to the extent of wins and losses, which are finally losing favor among even the non-analytically driven community. After all, last season he successfully saved 26 of 33 chances – would anyone say he had a great year?
Díaz is still just 26, has two more years of cheap arbitration control for the Mets, and is probably their best reliever under contract (especially if Seth Lugo will be a starter for the immediate future). Even if we don’t buy into the idea that Díaz might back to his old self, we should give him credit for the undeniable and significant strides he’s made this year, basically from the opening pitch.