By Ed Delany of MMO
Eduardo Escobar might be in danger of losing his everyday role.
The Mets third baseman has stumbled in the batter’s box during the month of May while his defense has been nothing special. It could open up playing time for the much-maligned J.D. Davis at the hot corner.
Escobar has struggled since the months rolled over. Through the Mets first seven games in May, Escobar is 4-for-32 with one extra-base hit and eight strikeouts. He’s seen his OPS drop from .805 to .674 and his batting average 40 points. Escobar is in the midst of an 0-for-18 stretch.
Escobar’s problem is that outside of his gorgeous walk percentage, he has failed to hit the ball hard. He ranked in the 12th percentile in average exit velocity and 15th percentile in hard-hit rate. It’s led to an expected batting average of .207 and an expected slugging of .335. Both marks rank in the bottom 15% of the league.
With the new baseballs this season, power has been sapped league-wide. Mark Canha has admitted to changing his approach because he doesn’t believe what he’s currently doing is sustainable with the baseballs. Escobar is coming off seasons of 35 and 28 home runs in 2019 and 2021. He’s hit one so far. That puts him on pace to hit six.
The Mets have taken notice of the slump Escobar has found himself in. Escobar had batted fifth in the lineup every game until Tuesday night when the Mets dropped him down to seventh in the order. Instead the Mets put Davis in the five-spot and Starling Marte batted sixth.
Davis has had limited opportunity in 2021 but it’s grown since Robinson Cano has been booted off the team. He’s only recorded 42 at-bats while starting 12 games.
But when Davis enters the lineup he smashes the ball. On Tuesday night against the Nationals, Davis recorded exit velocities of 100.6, 100.9, 107.0, and 110.3 miles per hour. On the season his average exit velocity is a ludicrous 94.8 mph. In 2019 he ranked in the top 10% of the league hitting the ball at an average of 91.5 mph.
It’s no secret that when healthy, Davis can mash. In his first season on the Mets, he ranked in the top 10% of players in exit velocity, max exit velocity, xBA, xSLG,xwOBA, xwOBACON, and hard hit percentage. It led to a season where he hit 22 home runs and slashed .307/.369/.527 in 140 games.
Davis lost out on his 2021 season due to injuries to his hand, where he never seemed fully comfortable at the plate. Now that he’s past it, it’s possible Davis can return to the form the Mets saw in 2019.
Obviously there are still the defensive concerns and if the Mets were 100% confident in Davis’ ability they never would’ve signed Escobar this offseason to play third base. But Escobar hasn’t been a defensive wizard either, ranking in the eighth percentile in outs above average this season.
The Mets have the option to rotate guys in and out throughout the diamond. Maybe give Davis some extra playing time while Escobar figures himself out.
