Don’t Sleep On Jordan Yamamoto

Following a disappointing 2020 campaign, the New York Mets needed to make multiple additions to their pitching staff over the offseason and the front office certainly hasn’t fallen short in that department, as the club’s rotation has dramatically improved since last season concluded.

Along with acquiring arms like Carlos Carrasco and Joey Lucchesi, management has also made it a priority to strengthen the team’s pitching depth this winter and they continued that process on Monday, as they acquired pitcher Jordan Yamamoto – who was designated for assignment last week – from the Miami Marlins in exchange for infielder Federico Polanco.

While this trade didn’t receive a ton of attention in New York, it’s still a move that makes this team better and helps provide some security in the starting rotation, which is something they didn’t possess last season. Though it’s unclear as to what the 24-year-old’s role will be, it definitely doesn’t hurt to have a former top prospect on the 40-man roster. Especially since the front office wasn’t forced to surrender any significant pieces in return.

Originally acquired by the Marlins in the Christian Yelich trade back in 2018, Yamamoto quickly rose through the minor leagues and ultimately earned a promotion to the majors midway through the 2019 campaign. But despite an encouraging start, as he posted 12 strikeouts and didn’t allow a single run over his first 14.0 innings, the right-hander struggled to perform effectively through the remainder of the season.

Over his 15 starts in 2019, the former Milwaukee Brewer compiled 78 2/3 innings, producing a 4.46 ERA, 4.23 xERA, 4.51 FIP, 4.89 xFIP, 25.2% strikeout rate, 11.1% walk rate, 21.3% LD rate, 35.6% GB rate, 43.1% FB rate, 12.6% HR/FB rate, 38.8% hard-hit rate, a 90.0 mph average exit velocity, and a 0.9 fWAR rating.

Considering this was Yamamoto’s first stint in the major leagues, the Marlins decided to look past these concerning metrics and provided him with another chance to improve his overall results in 2020. Unfortunately, things took a turn for the worse when he was needed to help fill in as a COVID-19 replacement, as the youngster was roughed up in all four of his appearances.

Through just 11 1/3 innings in 2020, the former 12th-round pick generated a miserable 18.26 ERA, 13.41 xERA, 11.93 FIP, 6.66 xFIP, 19.4% strikeout rate, 10.4% walk rate, 17.0% LD rate, 34.0% GB rate, 48.9% FB rate, 34.8% HR/FB rate, 61.7% hard-hit rate, a 93.0 mph average exit velocity, and a -0.5 fWAR rating.

Without question, Yamamoto endured one of the worst performances of his entire professional career last season. However, that doesn’t mean he isn’t capable of turning things around and a change of scenery could prove to be the perfect solution.

The 6′ 0″ hurler is far from a finished product and will definitely need to reduce the number of free passes and home runs he surrenders, but his encouraging repertoire makes him an extremely interesting option at the backend of the rotation.

Even though he can’t blow anyone away with velocity, the soft-throwing righty has solely relied on his ability to spin all six of his pitches at a very high rate. In particular, the former Marlin showcases this trait the most with his low-70s curveball and high-70s slider, which are both his top two offerings.

While his slider sustained a minor dip in velocity last season, as it averaged 77.9 mph in 2020 compared to 79.0 mph in 2019, it still created a ton of vertical and horizontal movement along with the highest spin rate (2,888 rpm) among all of his pitches. As a result, his primary breaking ball finished with the third-most inches of drop (51.6 inches) and was tied for the seventh-most inches of break (16.8 inches) among all pitchers who threw at least 50 sliders.

Thanks to its devastating movements, Yamamoto generated plenty of swings and misses with his slider, as it recorded a 32.4% chase rate, 41.7% chase whiff rate and a 25.0% whiff rate. Since opposing hitters weren’t able to make consistent contact with it, they also couldn’t create hard contact against it, resulting in a 25.0% hard-hit rate and an 83.7 mph average exit velocity.

As for his curveball, the St. Louis HS product only utilized it 14.1% of the time last season, but it proved to be an extremely valuable weapon for him and served as his most reliable strikeout weapon. Along with its spin rate (2,738 rpm) ranked in the 78th percentile, it also averaged 65.2 inches of drop – which would’ve been tied for 14th-most if he had qualified – 12.2 inches of break and an 89% active spin percentage.

Digging deeper into Yamamoto’s secondary breaking ball, it produced a .250 AVG, .166 xAVG, .202 xSLG, .304 wOBA, .150 xwOBA, 50.0% strikeout rate (highest rate among all of his pitches), 40.0% whiff rate, 40.0% in zone whiff rate, 50.0% GB rate and an 87.8 mph average exit velocity in 2020.

Unlike his slider and curveball, the Hawaii native’s fastball – his primary pitch – and cutter will both require further developing, especially since they generated the top two walk rates (15.8% and 13.0%) among all of his pitches last season. But considering they’re able to create high spin rates, as his four-seamer averaged 2,319 rpm and his cutter averaged 2,638 rpm in 2020, it seems neither of them is too far away from becoming plus pitches.

If Yamamoto can increase the velocity on his heater, which averaged just 89.7 mph last season compared to 91.5 mph in 2019, he’ll likely be able to locate it much higher in the strike zone, allowing it to perform more effectively moving forward.

On the other hand, his cutting fastball  didn’t sustain any decline in velocity in 2020, as it averaged 86.3 mph, although it posted just a 28% active spin percentage and averaged only 2.8 inches of break. Both of those metrics must improve during his inaugural season in Queens.

Even though he features a low-90s sinker and a low-80s changeup, there isn’t anything special about either of those two pitches. With that in mind, it’d be wise for him to limit his usage of them or completely remove both offerings from his repertoire.

At this stage of his career, Yamamoto certainly shouldn’t be considered a bust, as he still has plenty of time to further develop his craft. With one minor league option remaining, along with being under contract through the 2026 campaign, there’s no need to rush his development. It wouldn’t be the worst idea to send him down to the minors when next season opens.

While he’ll likely receive an opportunity to compete for the final spot in the Mets’ rotation this spring, it may be more beneficial to option the young righty down to Triple-A and utilize him as an injury replacement throughout the 2021 campaign.

Even if Yamamoto doesn’t break camp with the team, he will likely get the opportunity to showcase his skills at some point during the 2021 season. It will be interesting to see if he can take advantage of that opportunity when his number is called.