The Mets are looking for a new manager, and that has stirred quite the debate. Many Mets fans believe the team needs to go in the complete opposite direction of Mickey Callaway. Meaning they need to hire an experienced manager who can step right in and help this team win-now as they were meant to. Others believe that the Mets should follow the current trend and hire a younger former player who has an excellent understanding of analytics and today’s game.
Many who argue for experience point to Callaway as why the Mets have to avoid an inexperienced manager. Callaway had never managed at any level prior to being hired with the Mets, and he was a disaster. He didn’t have a grasp on analytics, he didn’t understand how to manage a bench, nor could he manage a bullpen. There was little that Callaway could do right, therefore the Mets must avoid a rookie manager who needs to learn on the job. That line of reasoning just doesn’t add up though.
Yes, Mickey Callaway was a disaster. There is no arguing that fact. He was in way over his head and was not ready to be a manager. However, that should not dissuade the Mets from trying again. There are five candidates known to be “hot” candidates in this hiring cycle. Two are experienced celebrity managers in Joe Maddon and Joe Girardi. However, the other three are former players who have never managed a day in their lives, they are Mark Kotsay, Carlos Beltran, and Sam Fuld.
The Mets have been connected to one of those candidates, Carlos Beltran. Beltran has a strong grasp on analytics and today’s game, having retired just two seasons ago after 2017. He was immediately considered for the Yankees managerial opening after Joe Girardi was fired, but ultimately lost out to Aaron Boone.
While it is true that Beltran lost out on the job that isn’t the end of the story. The Yankees were so impressed with Beltran that they hired him as a special assistant to General Manager Brian Cashman. Since then Beltran has been learning the art of management while working for the Yankees.
If Beltran agrees to interview, not a guarantee, and he proves to be the best candidate for the job should the Mets turn him away simply because he has no prior experience? I know most Mets fans want Joe Girardi to take the job, and he is a favorite for the job. However, the idea that many Mets fans are simply eliminating candidates like Beltran in favor of the likes of Dusty Baker, Buck Showalter, and Clint Hurdle is astonishing.
So many Mets fans whine that the team is so out of touch with the analytic side of the game that they are putting themselves at a disadvantage from the jump. Yet, many of those same people want to hire a manager in Dusty Baker who has said “putting men on base can be unimportant and merely clogging up the bases” in an interview while manager of the Cubs.
In an interview with Fangraphs just last year Buck Showalter said “A problem you run into now is that the players feel almost robotically evaluated. The sixth tool is not… it’s only evaluated by the people that are with them every day. The makeup, the want-to, the crunch-time guys: everybody on the field knows who they are.”
Are these the guys you want running your team in 2019. One who thinks players getting on base doesn’t matter, and the other who thinks intangibles like leadership should affect where you hit in the lineup. That’s exactly what Mets fans were just screaming about. Guys like Robinson Cano hitting third, and Nimmo hitting in the middle or bottom of the order.
All of those things that drove fans mad with Callaway would only be worse with these old-school managers who are either dismissing analytics in the case of Baker or in the case of Showalter accepting them but only so that he can understand them and not actually put them into practice.
Current MLB Managers
Now some fans might just say that’s my opinion, and in practice, good teams are managed by managers with experience. So let’s, put that to the test. Here is a list of every manager in baseball this year who had no prior managerial experience at any level before they’re current job:
Mickey Callaway, Mets
Mickey was a disaster who held the Mets back. He clearly wasn’t ready for the job.
Dave Martinez, Nationals
Martinez seemed to struggle to maintain the locker room in 2018. Something that could be said about every Nationals manager that preceded him. Once the biggest problem child in that locker room, Bryce Harper, left everything fell into place. Martinez was able to navigate an awful start to the year and the worst bullpen in baseball and make the playoffs.
Craig Counsell, Brewers
Counsell took over as interim manager with the Brewers in 2015. The Brewers were awful and stayed that way in 2016. In 2017 out of nowhere, the Brewers competed for and narrowly missed out on a playoff spot as their farm system finally reached the majors. In 2018 after making big moves to improve the team they made it to the NLCS. In 2019 despite a shaky rotation and an injury to the reigning MVP of the league Christian Yelich the Brewers fought their way to the playoffs.
Kevin Cash, Rays
Cash was put in a situation similar to Counsell. He was thrust into a bad situation with a strong farm system. His first three years were bad, but the Rays got better every year. Last year Cash and the analytically innovate Rays turned the league upside down. They used an opener in games to make up for a weak starting rotation, and that helped them shock baseball. They won 90 games in 2018 but missed the playoffs in an incredibly strong AL. This year the Rays finally put it all together and made the playoffs behind their innovative front office and manager.
Scott Servais, Mariners
Servais and the Mariners have been as up and down as anybody in baseball. Jerry DiPoto brought Servais with him to the Mariners from the Angles in 2016. In Servais’s first year the Mariners went from a 76 win team to an 86 team. In 2017 things went awry and the Mariners fell back to a 78 win team. In 2018 they went against every analytic trend in baseball and found success for the first 75% of the season. They couldn’t maintain that success over a full season though and missed the playoffs despite winning 89 games. Now in 2019, the Mariners sold off major pieces left and right and predictably finished the year with just 68 wins.
Rocco Baldelli, Twins
The hot manager prospect in baseball in 2018 Baldelli has proven to be a masterstroke for the Twins. After a disappointing 2018 season that saw many of the Twins best players regress 2019 has been a show. The Twins won 101 games this year behind Baldelli jumping the Indians in the AL Central and winning the division for the first time since 2010.
Aaron Boone, Yankees
Boone went from a broadcaster to the bench in 2018. Since taking over as manager for the Yankees Boone has led the team to back-to-back 100 win seasons that saw the Yankees reach the playoffs. The Yankees hadn’t won a 100 games since 2009 when they won the world series under Joe Girardi. Girardi himself only won 100 games once in his career. Boone has proven to be an outstanding replacement for Girardi for a Yankees team that was win-now in 2018 after losing in the ALCS in 2017.
Alex Cora, Red Sox
The Red Sox were as win-now a job as has been open in baseball the past couple of years. The team fired John Farrell for his inability to win in the playoffs. The team had given up hope that he could get them over that last hump after losing in the ALDS in 2017. Alex Cora was brought in to change that, and he did. In his first year as a manager, Cora led the Red Sox to a world series championship.
Following the world series win 2018 the Red Sox saw their bullpen get dismantled, which made things hard on Cora. Though, the biggest issue was that many of his elite players didn’t return to elite levels in 2019. For example, Mookie Betts was the league MVP in 2018 with a 10.4 fWAR and in 2019 he was worth 6.6 fWAR. That’s still an elite player, but he was nowhere near the player he was in 2018. That happened to the entire team, who also dealt with injuries throughout the year.
So what should the Mets do?
It’s simple, just hire the best person for the job. If they think that’s Girardi than go and get Girardi. If they think it’s Beltran or another candidate who doesn’t have managerial experience that’s okay too. History shows us that good teams win with new managers, and bad teams stay bad under new mangers.
If the Mets are a good team a manager with little experience likely won’t hold them back. The Mets just need to hire the right person for the job. Whether or not that means they have prior experience or not. There is simply no reason to believe that it would be a detriment to their win-now mentality.
The Mets and their fans can’t let past failures affect future decisions. That’s how you end up shooting yourself in the foot more often than not.
