After the Nationals dropped the Mets spring training record to 7-16-5, it got me thinking. Do spring training records have any correlation to regular season and postseason success?
In doing some research, I came across an article published in April of 2012 by ESPN senior writer, David Schoenfield. The article looks back at the teams with the best regular season record in each of the last 10 seasons, then, how those teams performed in spring training leading up to that season.
Schoenfield found that 13 of the 14 teams with the best regular season record had finished with a spring training record of at least .500. The 2006 Yankees were the only team with the best regular season record (97-65) to finish under .500 during spring training (15-16).
Since that article was published, only one other team succeeded at matching the 2006 Yankees. The 2012 Washington Nationals went 98-64 in the regular season despite a 12-17 record during the spring.
I bet you’re thinking, “obviously the best team would perform well in spring training. What about postseason success or postseason appearances?”
From 2006 to 2015, 30 of 88 playoff teams had a losing record in spring training. Six of those teams advanced to the World Series, while only two teams, the 2008 Phillies and the 2011 Cardinals, won it all.
So what does this mean?
Well, as far as the Mets go, these numbers suggest that the Mets are not likely to have the best record in the regular season, make the playoffs or win the world series. Or in other words, fake games mean nothing. Let’s look at the facts.
Last season, the Mets put themselves back in the national spotlight for the first time since ’06. And unlike those Mets, these Mets are built for more than just a cameo in October this year.
Between the re-signings of Yoenis Cespedes, Bartolo Colon, and Jerry Blevins, and the acquisitions of Neil Walker, Asdrubal Cabrera, Antonio Bastardo, and Alejandro De Aza, general manager Sandy Alderson kept his foot on the gas, unlike Omar Minaya after the 2006 season.
Alderson heads into the 2016 season with an Opening Day roster that is so significantly better than last year’s roster even the detractors cannot deny that. He’s done an incredible job rebuilding the entire organization from the top down and now he’s built a team with enough talent to make back to back playoff appearances for only the second time in franchise history.
That’s the reality of the situation in Flushing as the Mets are poised for another thrilling and exciting postseason run in 2016.
So here’s a question for all of you. Does the Mets’ 7-16-5 spring training record have any bearing on how the 2016 Mets will perform this season? You know my answer, what’s yours?
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