Reading through an old scouting report on Wilmer Flores that was written prior to his debut back in 2013, it becomes immediately apparent that his future value was rather transparent for a prospect. Despite knowing his strengths and weaknesses, the Mets front office has spent the last four seasons shifting the always cooperative cult icon all over the diamond.
The former top prospect has mainly been used as a temporary fix rather than a long term solution. As a result, it’s been rather difficult draw a firm conclusion as to whether we’ve seen it all, or if there’s more from the 24 year old Venezuelan. Interestingly enough, Flores has some tantalizing numbers at the plate, when his defensive positioning is more suitable to his physical strengths. With the return of Jose Reyes, his run at third base is in jeopardy, but perhaps that’s a short-sided approach by the Mets.
Wilmer’s first cup of coffee was a wash back in 2013. Defensively, he was still developing. There was conviction among a consensus of talent evaluators that he had the hands and arm strength to play on the left side of the field. The skepticism was related to his footwork and, rightfully so. When he got the call to fill in for David Wright back in 2013, he looked awkward. His feet often moved a click behind his body and more than once he stumbled to his knees attempting to make plays. He left that year behind with a lot of doubt as to where he’d find a home for his glove.
At the plate, he was hyped for his “…uncanny hand-eye coordination and exceptional feel for contact”. Scouts believe he possessed above average power good for “25-30 doubles and 15-18 home runs a year at the big-league level”. Now, to be clear, Flores was never on the same level as a Carlos Correa or Francisco Lindor, but his ’13 output of .211/.248/.295 never exactly blew anyone’s hair back. Many may disagree with this view, but it seemed as though he was not ready to fill in the Captain’s shoes. Fast forward to 2014, the beginning of the shortstop experiment.
With a lack of viable and cost-controlled middle infield options, the Mets went against the grain and gave Flores an extended look at shortstop. It went about as well as any previous scouting report would have indicated. “Though he was signed as a shortstop, he lacks the lateral quickness and instincts for the position”. Brutally honest, but that statement carries a lot of truth.
With the exception of an unbelievable run at shortstop throughout last year’s playoffs (credit where credit is due), Flores has always appeared to be overwhelmed by the daily physical demands that come with arguably the toughest position in baseball. Offensively, we all saw more of the same production at the plate that was there in ’13. Little ability to make contact, low on-base percentage and nearly non-existent power.
Then as the ’14 season winded down, Wilmer was given more playing time at the keystone and the results were fascinating, for two reasons. First, his production at second was astronomically better than anything we’d seen before, posting a .320/.358/.620 line in the 14 games he started at the position from August 19 until the end of the year. Secondly, while enjoying career high production at second, he was still getting ample playing time at shortstop randomly throughout that period in time. The success he enjoyed at second was exclusive to that position. Through that same stretch of games starting in mid-August, he posted a .250/.288/.397 slash line at shortstop.
Had Flores surged offensively regardless of where he played, anyone could make the case that some other factor was involved in his breakout. Through that time though, the rather small sample size did indicate that he was more productive based on where he played defensively. Given the limited number of games at the position though, it would have been difficult for anyone to draw the conclusion that he was being unfairly judged on both sides of the ball as a shortstop. That is, until it happened again in 2015.
In 373 plate appearances as a shortstop last year (playoffs not included), Flores slashed out at .248/.283/.385. In all fairness, he hit 12 of his 16 home runs at that position, but given that 73% of his playing time came at short last year, it does make sense that 75% of his HR production came while playing there as well. What requires a deeper look though, is the fact that half of his 16 home runs came in the first two months of the season while playing short.
Starting in June though, after merely a few months of dealing with the daily grind at SS, his power completely fell off a cliff. In 51 remaining games he played exclusively at shortstop, from June onward, he went from a modest .423 slugging percentage through the month of May, down to .339 through the rest of year- at that position. By now, we’re seeing a pattern that- as a shortstop- the Mets are willingly conceding a large amount of production from one of their young, talented players. It was only a few years ago that he had a much higher offensive ceiling than what the overall stats are telling us now.
Simply put, the added physical demand of shortstop has consistently worn down his legs and drastically altered the production many expected to see. Just absolutely robbing his ability to drive the ball with authority. Looking at it from a more practical perspective, it still makes complete sense that a lengthy 6’3, 205 lb athlete, built more like a shooting guard than a baseball player, would experience a quicker onset of fatigue than a player built with a more compact and agile frame. Again, whether you prefer the stats or the eye test, both have consistently arrived at the same conclusion time and time again.
And how did he fare once taken off of shortstop last year? Well, the only other defensive position he played was second base and sure enough, he produced at a .305/.331/.469 clip and did so over 133 plate appearances. Again, not an overwhelming sample size, but we’re seeing a growing trend and coupled with ‘14’s production, we’re looking at a second baseman who produced a .302/.330/.500 slash line through 201 plate appearances up until the end of the 2015 season. 500 PA’s is typically the watermark for when players begin to round out to their average output, or at least that’s what the majority of baseball minds subscribe too, but what good is that when so many other variables have been inconsistent?
Also, this line from the 2013 scouting report stood out to me after reviewing the above results.
“His overall offensive profile could steady in the .280-.285 range with decent pop and a relatively low on-base percentage”.
Looking at his 2nd base production above, we see a high average, with an OBP that sits barely above it and a slugging percentage that is certainly representative of a player with “decent pop”. To me that’s a guy that prefers to make contact, but will drive the ball with excellent doubles power and above average home run power. To me, that’s Wilmer.
Now we turn the page to 2016, the year of the super-utility player, or at least what was the year of the super-utility player until David Wright’s season came to screeching halt yet again. Enter Flores at the hot corner, yet again, now with three seasons around the diamond under his belt.
At shortstop, we saw Wilmer make drastic improvements to his footwork, which subsequently led to a greater ability to make throws on the run, record outs on hard hit balls ranging away from him and most importantly, make sufficiently accurate throws across the diamond. To be clear, accuracy will likely never be a strength of his, but it never was for David Wright either. The latter was often times a beneficiary of first baseman who were long and created a large vacuum with their glove, particularly with picking throws out of the dirt (a skill Lucas Duda rarely gets the proper credit for). Similarly to the Captain though (circa 2004-2013), Flores has a very strong arm- dare we say stronger than David- and he’s shown that with it, he can compensate for many of his shortcomings.
This all matters for one reason, Flores clearly enjoys third base. There’s far less range to cover, which is significant considering he actually has a quick first step and can get horizontal on balls within that 2-3 step range in a heartbeat. At third base, that’ll work. Does it mean he’ll always make every play? No, but he’ll find a home with his glove and at times, manage to make the big plays. With that set in place, he can finally get consistent at-bats at a position that minimizes the drain on his legs, but still adds value to the team defensively. And how has he looked at the plate as a third baseman this year?
Following his recent resurgence, Wilmer now boasts a .287/.344/.504 slash line at the hot corner this year, good for an .848 OPS. Now, it was only last week that he was mired in arguably his worst slump of the season, but throughout this pattern of ups and downs, it seems that Flores has always required a bit of time to get acclimated before he heats up. Many have argued that Jose Reyes looming over his back has provided the added motivation. Maybe that is the case, but to be honest, we’ve seen the same results time and time again when he’s given both an ample number of repetitions to go along with a position he can manage.
When a player is young and cost-controlled, any value they can add is similar to playing with house money, reap enough of it and you’re really hitting the jackpot. Because of that, it’s imperative that the Mets give him an extended look at third. The sample size away from shortstop is still limited enough to disagree with the conclusion, but it’s no longer small enough to dismiss completely.
Furthermore, prior to his debut, scouts had a consensus view that is now in line with a lot of what we’re seeing at third and second. As excited as I was to see Jose suit up again, I’ve been watching Flores get the proverbial chair pulled out from underneath him for years now. As someone who never placed much of a future on him during his first few go-arounds, I’ve come around and now more than ever feel that it’s time to put him in a position to succeed.
Lets. Go. Mets!
