Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Do or die. Win or go home. Last licks.

There are plenty of idioms to describe the situation the New York Mets find themselves in entering Saturday’s postseason matchup with the San Diego Padres. But there’s only one reality: the Mets need to win.

And there’s only one man for the job. Jacob deGrom has been the single most dominant pitcher in baseball over the last five years, starting with the first of two consecutive Cy Young award wins in 2018. In nine seasons at the big-league level, his worst season from a statistical standpoint was back in 2017 when he posted a 3.53 ERA across 31 starts. He still finished top-10 in Cy Young voting that year.

DeGrom has been a statistical anomaly throughout his career, seeing his pitch velocity increase as he gets older and striking out batters at historic rates for a starter. He was virtually unhittable in the 2021 season before going down with an injury, and he resumed that form when returning back in early August.

However, deGrom has not looked nearly as sharp in his recent outings. Dating back to his September 13 start against the Chicago Cubs, deGrom has given up at least three earned runs in each of his last four starts. He has a 6.00 ERA across his last 21 innings, allowing six home runs.

The worst of those starts came in an abysmal performance against the Oakland Athletics in Oakland, where he allowed five runs in four innings and walked four batters. In his most recent start, he gave up three home runs to the Atlanta Braves in a game where the Mets desperately needed a win to preserve their division lead.

There was a period of time where it was all but guaranteed that deGrom would give an otherworldly performance every time he stepped onto the mound. There have been glimpses of that even in this string of rough outings, as he has racked up 39 strikeouts in those four starts.

But there is no hiding now. Another lackluster start from deGrom will likely send the Mets packing, a painfully anticlimactic ending to a 101-win team that was brimming with promise throughout the entire summer.

DeGrom will have to do what Max Scherzer was not able to do before him. The Mets brought in Scherzer this past offseason for his big-game prowess, and yet the veteran was tagged for four runs against the Braves last week before being shelled for seven runs in Game 1 on Friday. Walking off the mound on Friday, Scherzer was met with a cacophony of boos, a sign of frustration from Mets fans who were desperately hoping that this year would be different.

In order to keep the Mets’ postseason hopes alive, deGrom will have to overcome a vaunted San Diego Padres lineup that is firing on all cylinders at just the right moment. Their massive trade deadline acquisitions, Juan Soto and Josh Bell, have not put up eye-catching numbers in a Padres uniform, but they are still two of the best hitters in the league. The supporting cast is just as revered, from perennial MVP candidate Manny Machado to guys like Jurickson Profar and Trent Grisham, both of whom went yard against Scherzer.

On Saturday night, Jacob deGrom has a chance to change the narrative. He has the opportunity to be the Jacob deGrom that hitters stand no shot of making contact against when they step to the plate. He will need to be all of that and more, or the season is over.

No pressure.