A Clutch Performer
This was the biggest season yet in Brendan Hardy’s career. Of course, each of the last few seasons have been getting increasingly important as the likelihood of getting released increased following his 2021 season and he became Rule 5 draft eligible. Thus far in his six years with the Mets, Brendan Hardy has done everything similarly: Just in the nick of time.
Regarding his timing for Rule 5 eligibility, while he could have been selected last year, he likely only drew interest as a pick in the minor league phase. After being added to the Syracuse roster in the offseason, he was, therefore, ineligible for that part of the draft. While he will certainly be added to the Triple-A roster again to block him from being selected in the MiLB phase, his recent promotion and potential for the Arizona Fall League will make him draw interest–at the very least, as due diligence by other teams.
A comparison that comes to mind for his Rule 5 and 40-man roster potential and Double-A promotion is 2021, Brian Metoyer. Metoyer tore it up in Brooklyn for the vast majority of the season before a promotion at the end of the year to Binghamton. He then went to the Fall League and was in serious consideration for being either added to the 40-man roster or being selected in the MLB phase of the draft before a rather destructive final outing where he hit or walked 5+ hitters, which likely scared off some would-be suitors. While Metoyer still has the same big league potential as before, he hasn’t pitched since the spring of 2022 and is an impending free agent. It would be a welcome sight to see him get another opportunity with the Mets or another club simply due to ‘what almost was.’
Brendan Hardy, Photo by Ed Delany of Metsmerized
The Hardy Difference
Hardy hasn’t reached Double-A in his six seasons in the organization until this week, so it’s understandable to question why he warrants any attention. When he hit rock bottom during the 2021 season, walking 38 batters in just 26 innings, his future didn’t look bright. He likely entered 2022 on the list to be cut but completely transformed himself in the offseason, not only saving his skin but also emerging into a prospect and priority player. He went from throwing fastballs between 85-95 mph, an incredibly widespread created by both physical and mental components, to touching 97 in 2022 spring training, pounding the zone, his typical Tim Lincecum-esque extension, and throwing a new, nasty sweeper. It was nothing short of shocking.
His spring success carried into the start of the season, striking out over two hitters an inning in eight innings pitcher for St. Lucie and quickly earned his first promotion to the Tri-State area, continuing to dominate for Brooklyn despite some fatigue and ever-present velocity fluctuations. While he had a bit of an up-and-down tenure to finish 2022, one could hardly blame him after such a rocky season the year prior. After it was all said and done, he finished his ’22 time in Brooklyn with a respectable 3.48 ERA, 29 strikeouts in 20 innings, yielding 17 BB and just 12 hits.
He missed the first month of this season but picked up right where he left off, showing the Mets organization that he still had whatever he found entering the 2022 season. In his rehab progression, he made quick work of St. Lucie again and has spent the rest of the 2023 season enjoying consistent success for the Cyclones. His K-BB% of 24 (34.1 K% and 10.2 BB% rates) was well above league average.
Pitch Shapes and Mechanical Characteristics
It’s hard not to see a bit of either Tim Lincecum or ‘Doc’ Gooden in Hardy, as his posture, arm action, and movement down the mound are incredibly unique. He also has a similar lanky build to the pair of legends and has perhaps the longest extension towards home plate in all of baseball. Since Carter Capps isn’t in the league anymore, Tyler Glasnow has been documented to have the longest extension at 7’4″ and Hardy extends over 7′ 6″ towards home plate. The name of the game in pitching is ‘how to be an outlier,’ and Hardy is extremely successful in that regard.
While his fastball is averaging below league-average velocity (sub 93), the extension and his usual location at the bottom of the zone likely lead to a high amount of takes from hitters expecting the pitches to stay below the zone. While he would get more misses at the top of the zone, he’s enjoyed a high amount of room for error pitching at levels that he is frankly too good for. He’s also added a tick of velocity to his sweeper this season, more regularly throwing it in the low 80s, whereas last year, it would often be in the mid-to-high 70s with more glove-side movement. His new pitch, a cutter in the upper 80s, is a savvy addition to bridge the movement the gap between all of his pitches while offering a generally easily commanded third pitch.
Path to Glory
While it may be a long shot at this point to see Hardy either on the 40-man roster or as a selection in the MLB portion of the Rule 5 draft, they are both possibilities if all things go his way. The Mets would do well to add him to the Arizona Fall League roster, as he has only tallied 27 2/3 innings after missing April, making him a perfect candidate. At a minimum, he has a good chance to open 2024 in Triple-A and be knocking on the door to Queens.
