The month of July is always an exciting time for Major League Baseball and its fans. The All Star Game, the second half of the season, and of course, trade rumors. For fans and media alike, the fun banter back and forth of who’s available and at what price always draws a lot of attention and brings about fun conversation during the month.
USA Today’s Bob Nightengale sent a tweet out Thursday, essentially saying that besides the starting rotation and shortstop Tim Anderson, the Chicago White Sox are open for business at the deadline. The White Sox were up by as much as six games in May, setting an early tone in the tough American League Central, before succumbing to several losing streaks and finding themselves two games under .500, and 10 games back as of Thursday afternoon.
It appears the White Sox could be in sell mode, and trying to rebuild a minor league system that ranks in the bottom third of baseball. One such name that Met fans should be interested in and one that could provide power, a great on-base percentage, and terrific career numbers with runners-in-scoring-position is first baseman Jose Abreu.
Abreu, 29, was a big Cuban free agent that Met fans were yearning for back in 2013. The White Sox signed the then 26-year-old to a six-year $68 million deal. His impact in the league was felt immediately, as he would hit .317/.383/.581 in his rookie year, along with 36 homers and 107 RBI, winning the A.L. Rookie of the Year easily in 2014. He would lead the league in slugging (.581) and OPS+ (173) that year, and followed that up with another solid campaign (.290/.347/.502 30 HR 101 RBI) in 2015.
Abreu’s numbers are down so far in 2016, where his peripherals are all lower than his first two seasons in the states, however, since June 1, Abreu has turned it around at the plate, slashing .299/.349/.478 with five homers and 25 RBI.
Defensively, he’s not great at first, where FanGraphs rates his metrics negatively, particularly in UZR where he rates at -3.5 for the year, however, current Mets’ first baseman James Loney doesn’t rate all that much better at -2.1 to date. Lucas Duda is the better defender at first, where he registered a 1.8 UZR before going down with a stress fracture in his lower back earlier in May.
So what does this mean for the Mets? Should they or could they go after Abreu and add him to a lineup that has been inept with hitting with runners-in-scoring-position, advancing runners, and making productive outs?
I believe the Mets should look to explore any avenue that makes this team better going forward, and Abreu offers that with his prodigious bat. This is a guy that averages 32 homers and 108 RBI and a .867 OPS in 162 game season, who is still in his prime years (29), and has three more years of control at a reasonable cost ($10.5 in 2017, $11.5 in 2018, $12 in 2019). According to mlbtraderumors, his contract does allow for him to opt into arbitration following the 2016 season if he so chooses.
The move would also give them a power bat option in case Yoenis Cespedes decides to opt out and leave the Mets in free agency this offseason. However, the draw of playing with a fellow Cuban might keep Cespedes here, another alluring factor in potentially bringing Abreu aboard.
Then there’s his off the charts numbers in hitting with RISP. For his career in 442 plate appearances, Abreu has a slash line of .304/.410/.508 for an OPS of .918, with 19 homers, and 174 RBI. He also has 63 walks to 91 strikeouts in that sample. According to baseballreference, in high leverage situations, Abreu posts an OPS of .821, encouraging that the big moments don’t faze the right-handed slugger.
So what would it take to bring Abreu to Queens? Because he’s under team control for the next few seasons, the White Sox would presumably want a good haul in return from the Mets. Would a package of Dominic Smith, Gavin Cecchini, Brandon Nimmo and another piece or two get it done? Or Zack Wheeler and Dominic Smith straight up for Abreu? And of course, what would the Mets do with Lucas Duda, once he comes back from the disabled list? A fair question of course, as Duda will be a free agent at the conclusion of the 2017 season. The Mets could look to unload Duda in the offseason, as part of a larger package for a pitcher or bullpen help. But we also don’t know what type of player Duda will be once he does come back from the disabled list, one he’s been on for far longer than most of the early prognosis.
Is this a trade this will likely happen? Probably not. Then again, things have a funny way of happening, and quickly in baseball, so I wouldn’t rule anything out. But as the Mets take on the second place Marlins and Jose Fernandez, penciling in the six-foot-three masher wouldn’t look so bad right about now.
