It’s no secret that Pete Alonso delivered an extraordinary rookie season in 2019. Among his defining moments was breaking the rookie home run record by smashing 53 homers, a number that also led the MLB as a whole for the season.
Aside from this, he finished the season fourth in all of baseball for RBI (120), and delivered a solid slashline of .260/.358/.583. The National League All-Star and Home Run Derby champ finished third on the Mets in fWAR with 4.8, and led the team alongside Jeff McNeil with a 143 wRC+.
The question many are asking is if Pete Alonso will be able to surpass his own success in the upcoming season. While no one can predict for certain what his potential is for 2020, the hope is that he will be able to replicate his rookie season (at the very least) to get the team to the postseason.
Looking back at Alonso’s run in Triple-A ball, he owned a .260/.355/.585 slashline in 2018 with a 139 wRC+, almost a mirror image of his 2019 numbers. In Double-A that same year, he delivered a .314/.440/.573 slashline and a 180 wRC+.
When looking at other standout rookies in years’ past, particularly former rookie home run record-breaker Aaron Judge, his home run hitting settled down after his 52 home runs and .284/.422/.627 slashline in 2017. He rounded out 2018 with 27 home runs and a still-notable .278/.392/.528 slashline. A similar trajectory could be the case for Alonso, but cranking out home runs may not be the sweet spot for Alonso in his sophomore year.
It is possible that Alonso can deliver another stellar home run performance. Given the juxtaposition of Alonso’s 21 home runs in Triple-A in 2018 against a show-stopping 53 in the big leagues, it’s debated that Alonso doesn’t have the power to beat – or sustain – that number. However, in 2019, his average exit velocity (EV) was better than 78% of major leaguers, at 90.6 mph, indicating his talent could have staying power in the coming years.
Also, his expected weighted on-base average (xwOBA) ranked in the 89th percentile at .374. This number factors skill into the equation more heavily, which indicates that Alonso has a lot more fuel in the tank for the coming season. If Alonso sacrifices a few home runs in 2020 for the sake of an improved batting average, he’ll be in a good spot to deliver the offensive support the team needs.
His standout 2019 season was no fluke and, despite the mystery of the juiced ball, Alonso is likely to come out strong for 2020. Though we can’t entirely predict what’s to come for Polar Bear Pete, it’s safe to say he has his work cut out for him to deliver another solid offensive year in exchange for a ticket to the postseason.
