The Mets hit 224 home runs in 2017, shattering a club record of 218 that was set the year prior.
However, with New York’s playoff hopes falling by the wayside, general manager Sandy Alderson dismantled the team and traded away big boppers Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda, Curtis Granderson and Neil Walker. Combined, they were good for 75 home runs for the Mets before being dealt this year.
After their respective trades, the players went on to hit 31 more long balls combined. Add that up, and that is 106 homers, nearly half of the clubs total. With that being said, the Mets now have some serious work to do this offseason to replenish the offensive output that these four players produced.
Incumbents Yoenis Cespedes and Michael Conforto each have 30 home run potential and could be a nice combo in the middle of the order. However, with their recent injuries, it’s far from a sure thing. The Mets need to go out and replace some of that power they traded away this winter if they are to have any hope of competing.
Over a 162 game average, Cespedes projects for 32 home runs, 102 RBI and a .274/.328/.498 batting line. In just 81 games for the Mets in 2017, he did hit 17 home runs, and therein lies the rub. We’ve seen what Cespedes is capable of when he’s in the lineup, but how many games will the Mets get from their high-priced slugger in 2018? His OPS+ over the last three seasons with the Mets are 155, 136 and 132 respectively.
As for Conforto, the young outfielder was on his way to reaching the 30 home run plateau before going down with a devastating shoulder injury in August. He had 27 dingers in 109 games (440 plate appearances). However, his long term health is still very much up in the air. The Mets won’t know at least until the winter what his status is going into next year and what the recovery time looks like.
As for the rest of the team, there are three players that could provide the Mets with some home run potential: Travis d’Arnaud, Asdrubal Cabrera and Wilmer Flores.
While d’Arnaud will likely split duties with Kevin Plawecki behind the dish going forward, he still managed to hit 16 home runs in 348 at-bats in 2017. It was the third time in his career he had 10+ homers in a season. While staying on the field is hardly a sure thing, a tandem of d’Arnaud and Plawecki on paper looks good and could provide some pop behind the dish.
Moving on to the infield, the Mets recently exercised Cabrera’s $8.5 million option for 2018. Despite his trade request debacle midway through the season, Cabrera rebounded to have a solid latter portion of the campaign. He was third in the NL with a .371 (33-for-89) batting average in September. He was fourth with a .431 OBP that month and fourth in slugging (.607). He also clubbed 23 homers in 2016. While he likely won’t reach the 30 home run mark, he figures to get a decent amount of playing time and can go deep every once in awhile.
Lastly, I think Wilmer Flores has the greatest chance for 30 home run potential. He has flashed his power more and more over the years and clubbed a career high 18 long balls in 2017. However, him hitting more than that is contingent on the playing time he gets. From his swing, I think one day he is going to pull it altogether and start blasting home run balls left and right. Whether that is with the Mets or not remains to be seen. Probably not.
At the end of the day, the Mets are going to have to dip into the free agent market and secure at least one big bat. A couple names that have been floated around are infielder Todd Frazier and bringing back Jay Bruce.
The former hit 27 homers between the White Sox and Yankees in 2017 after launching 40 long balls with the Sox in 2016. While he is only a .245/.321/.459 lifetime hitter, his defense at the hot corner and knack for hitting a home run more than makes up for his low batting average.
With the Mets having an immediate need at third, Frazier is a name you can bet will be linked to the Mets this winter. He would also complement Cespedes nicely as well as Conforto when he returns.
As for Jay Bruce, it’s more of a long shot. It seems unlikely he will want a return to Flushing, but as we’ve seen in the past, if a market is slow to develop anything could happen.
In his time with New York in 2017, he smacked 29 balls out of the yard. He went on and hit seven more with the Tribe after his trade in August. However, a reunion with Bruce would do wonders both on and off the field. Plus, he is familiar with current Mets manager Mickey Callaway.
Mike Moustakas will likely be too rich for the Mets’ taste this offseason, so Frazier seems like a more likely option for them at the hot corner. Still, it will take more than Frazier alone to replace those 100+ home runs and 300 RBIs. I hope Dominic Smith is eating his Wheaties… Never mind, scratch that.
