Last season the Mets hit 218 home runs, 5th most in the MLB. That mark also set a new franchise record for most home runs in a single season. A question for this season then becomes: Can the Mets put up similar power numbers in 2017? The names on the 2017 roster will be mostly the same, however in actuality, the lineup on any given day will have some major differences than 2016.
First of all, and probably the most important difference, is slugger Lucas Duda should be healthy for an entire season. The Mets went without his services for most of the 2016 season, employing light-hitting James Loney who hit nine home runs in 100 games, as opposed to Duda’s seven home runs in only 47 games.
In 2014, Duda hit 30 home runs in 153 games and 27 in 135 games in 2015. It remains to be seen how his injury last season affects his power going forward. It is a safe assumption to say he will return to form after an offseason’s work and will be good for as many as 30 home runs in 2017. We must also take into account that it is, for the first time in his career, a contract year as he will be a free agent after the season.
Another huge ‘if’ is whether or not Michael Conforto can break out into the power threat we all hope he can be. Even in his absolutely abysmal 2016, he still managed to hit 12 home runs in 109 games. Nobody knows for sure how good he will be in 2017 and beyond, but if he emerges this year as a legitimate offensive threat at the age of 23, I would not be surprised if he hit at least 20 home runs.
The Mets have yet to trade outfielder Jay Bruce, but for the sake of this article, that is a good thing. In nine seasons, Bruce has hit 241 home runs, averaging 31 per 162 games. Even though he didn’t exactly hit the ground running when he got to New York in 2016, he still managed to crush 33 home runs in the season. If he remains a Met on Opening Day, it is safe to assume two things: First of all, he will definitely be a trade deadline candidate, and second, his role will not be the every day starting job he’d enjoyed in Cincinnati.
Yoenis Cespedes will start every day, and as the Mets front office has said they want Michael Conforto out there every day as well, Bruce will be fighting for at bats with Curtis Granderson and Juan Lagares. Before being traded to the Mets in 2016, Bruce hit 25 home runs in 97 games for the Reds. If he were to play slightly less games due to the clogged outfield and then get traded in July, I’d estimate he’d add about 20 home runs to the Mets’ total.
The Mets will also be without constant home run threat Bartolo Colon. In 2016, Mets pitchers accounted for four home runs with Noah Syndergaard blasting three, including two in one game against Kenta Maeda. Matt Harvey also has a home run in his career (2015), and while Jacob deGrom and Steven Matz have yet to hit one over the fence, they are both above average hitting pitchers. I could see Mets starters accounting for five home runs in 2017, but again, the loss of Colon really hurts here.
There will be some constants returning to the Mets lineup. Neil Walker hit 23 home runs last season, and as he averages 21 home runs per 162 games, another 20 home runs out of him would not be crazy to ask for. Yoenis Cespedes blasted 31 homers of his own, and after hitting 35 the year before, his goal for this season should be at least 30. Fellow outfielder Curtis Granderson has improved on his home run total each of the past three seasons, blasting 30 in 2016. I think he will be good for another 25-30 home runs in 2017.
Asdrubal Cabrera hit 23 home runs last season, falling just short of his career-high 25 set in 2011. He missed some time in 2016 with a strained left patella in his knee, and even after he came back he was still playing through pain. Coming in to this season healthy, a conservative prediction for him would be somewhere in the 20 home run range.
Utility man Wilmer Flores has quietly hit 16 home in each of the past two seasons, last year doing it in only 307 at bats. With everyone coming back healthy, he will probably not get as much playing time as either of the last two seasons barring any injuries in the infield. Even so, at the rate he has been improving, I wouldn’t be surprised if he hit 15 home runs in 2017 as he will surely be facing a lot of lefties, against whom he thrives.
David Wright and Jose Reyes will be sharing the spotlight at third base this season, so it would be best to group them together. Reyes hit eight home runs in 60 games last season, and will probably play plenty more than that in 2017. I estimate he will account for 10 home runs this season. Wright, while not the 30-homer threat he used to be, is still plenty capable of hitting it over the fence. It remains to be seen how many games he will play in, but after hitting 12 home runs in only 75 games the last two seasons, that seems like a good estimate for 2017.
The last starting player to predict, with the exception of maybe Michael Conforto, is the toughest. Travis d’Arnaud has severely underperformed his entire career, hitting only 13 home runs in 108 games in 2014, improving with 12 homers in 67 games the next year, falling back to only four home runs in 75 games last season. He has many problems to work on, but his .323 SLG% is certainly one of them. The front office is giving him one last chance in 2017, passing on free agent All Star catcher Matt Wieters. An optimistic prediction is that he breaks out with 20 home runs this season, but a more realistic expectation is in the 10-15 range.
It is important to remember the bench when making these predictions, as they will account for plenty of home runs. Juan Lagares hit three home runs last year, but he’s got more than that in the tank. Unfortunately, whether or not Bruce gets traded, his playing time will once again be severely curtailed, so I wouldn’t expect more than five out of him. Rene Rivera is returning, and the six home runs he hit last season is a good expectation for 2017 as well.
To sum up, here is a list of my final predictions for each Mets’ home run totals in 2017 (keep in mind I am a very optimistic person):
Yoenis Cespedes: 31-35
Lucas Duda: 27-33
Curtis Granderson: 24-30
Michael Conforto: 21-25
Asdrubal Cabrera: 20-24
Neil Walker: 18-23
Jay Bruce: 18-23 (before traded at deadline)
Wilmer Flores: 13-18
David Wright: 13-18
Travis d’Arnaud: 10-15
Jose Reyes: 8-13
Rene Rivera: 3-7
Juan Lagares: 3-7
Pitchers: 3-7
Some of those players will hit less than my prediction, some will hit more, and most likely, some will get injured. The Mets hit 218 home runs last year without Lucas Duda and a productive Michael Conforto. Those two additions alone should help shatter last year’s home run total as long as everybody else hits around the same amount they did last year.
We must give serious credit to Mets hitting coach Kevin Long. Before he arrived, the Mets were 20th in home runs, hitting only 125 as a team in 2014. In 2015, his first season, they moved up to 8th with 177 home runs. In 2016, with the help of Neil Walker, Asdrubal Cabrera, and a full season from Yoenis Cespedes, they jumped up again to 5th place with 218 dingers. While the Mets made some strong acquisitions during that time, Long was certainly one of them.
I think the Mets will eclipse their total from last year. I predict they’ll move up to second in the Majors, surpassing the Seattle Mariners, the Toronto Blue Jays who lost Edwin Encarnacion (42 HRs in 2016) and the St. Louis Cardinals who lost Matt Holliday (20) and Brandon Moss (28). The Baltimore Orioles should lead the league again, especially after re-signing Mark Trumbo who hit 47 last season.
What do you think of my predictions? Do you think they’re too lofty or should they be higher? Comment below!
