After a long, agonizing winter, we’re finally here.
Opening day is tomorrow afternoon and actual baseball will soon replace speculation, predictions, and scuttlebutt. And particularly in the NL East, that development will be especially refreshing.
The Braves, Mets, Nationals, and Phillies all believe they will be the last one’s standing at the end of September–and for good reason. The Pecota computer Baseball Prospectus uses predicts the four clubs to finish within six games of each other. Fangraphs has the race even more tight, with the four separated by only four wins.
While a division fielding four organizations legitimately going for it in a given season should not be a novel idea, sadly that is the landscape of today’s game. Take the American League for example, where on March 27th we can realistically already declare four of the five October participants.
With four teams that are so evenly matched on paper, it’s fair to assume what will ultimately determine the race will be who can best avoid the disabled list, and which General Manager will make the July move to put his team over the top.
In terms of health, the defending division champion Braves are already a little behind the eight ball. Their top starting pitcher Mike Foltynewicz is currently unavailable, as is another key member of their rotation, Kevin Gausman.
The Mets are missing two infielders, Jed Lowrie and Todd Frazier, but with the emergence of Pete Alonso at first base Frazier wasn’t going to start anyway, and they should be able to survive with Jeff McNeil at third until Lowrie returns.
Washington was able to escape spring training relatively in tact, but the early season absences of valuable bench players Michael Taylor and Howie Kendrick will weaken their depth.
The Phillies enter the season healthier than the rest of their rivals, with right handed set-up man Tommy Hunter the only key contributor that won’t suit up tomorrow.
With a race that’s expected to be more or less a six month dogfight, every game will be more critical than ever, particularly division games that carry a two game swing. For the Mets especially, getting off to a fast start will be of particular importance.
Beginning this weekend in D.C., 19 of the Amazins’ first 24 games are against division rivals. Similarly, Philadelphia will participate in 17 division battles in their first 24 contests. Atlanta and Washington will have more exposure to teams from the other divisions, which is probably a good thing for the Braves while they work some of their pitchers back into the fold.
It is exciting that these four clubs that have been the subject of so much chatter these past few months will open up against each other. The Mets and Nationals will jump right into the ring with a heavyweight three game fight, putting their vaunted rotations head to head from the outset.
The Phillies and Braves will open against one another for the second straight year, although this time around don’t expect Gabe Kapler to pull Aaron Nola early and let a five run lead get away.
What’s most important though, is that baseball is back. Conversation can turn to pitching match-ups, road trips, and transactions instead of wondering where free-agents will sign and who experts are picking to win it all.
And I for one can’t wait.
