I wholeheartedly agree with everyone who says the Mets need to bring in a late-inning reliever to supplement Addison Reed and Jeurys Familia. However, with a recent report saying the Mets want two prospects for Jay Bruce, there is a possibility that they might not bring in a player like that. If that possibility comes to fruition, the Mets have someone I believe could fill that role.
Hansel Robles will have a breakout 2017 season. In 2016, he went 6-4 with a 3.48 ERA, striking out 85 batters in 77.2 innings. Those are average numbers for a reliever, but upon further investigation into his statistics, they show that he could be a lot better. Below are his splits by month:
April: 10.2 IP, 15 Ks, 3 BB, .286 BAA, 1.69 ERA
May: 12.1 IP, 12 Ks, 6 BB, .146 BAA, 5.11 ERA
June: 15.1 IP, 19 Ks, 9 BB, .267 BAA, 2.91 ERA
July: 11.2 IP, 12 Ks, 2 BB, .225 BAA, 0.00 ERA
August: 15.0 IP, 13 Ks, 12 BB, .293 BAA, 9.00 ERA
September: 12.0 IP, 13 Ks, 4 BB, .182 BAA, 0.75 ERA
As you can see, one month he would pitch lights out, and the next he would pitch poorly. However, the reasons he pitches poorly vary. In May, despite a very good .146 BAA, his opponents still managed to score seven earned runs in 12.1 innings off him, due to a whopping five home runs allowed that month. However, in June, despite a high .267 BAA and nine walks in 15.1 innings, he managed to keep his ERA at a respectable 2.91.
What is the cause for his inconsistency? What can Robles to in order to consistently put up numbers like he did last April, July, and September? First of all, he needs to be able to throw his secondary pitches in hitters counts. Here are opponents batting averages against him in hitters’ counts:
0-0: .406 (13-for-32), 4 2B, 1 HR
1-0: .286 (6-for-21), 2 2B, 1 HR
2-0: .000 (0-for-4), 0 2B, 0 HR
2-1: .545 (6-for-11), 3 2B, 1 HR
3-1: .400 (2-for-5), 1 2B, 0 HR
I as a pitcher know the importance of getting a secondary pitch over the plate when the hitter is surely sitting dead red. Smart hitters will take the pitch for a strike, and others will be out in front and hit a weak ground ball. Robles has always had a good slider, and has recently learned a changeup which proved effective (.208 BAA in 2016).
A mark of a good pitcher is the ability to get batters out even after falling behind in the count. If he were to throw his changeup or slider in the above counts instead of fastballs, he would surely enjoy more success.
By the same token, he has shown that he is very good at putting hitters away when ahead in the count:
0-2: .167 (5-for-30), 1 2B, 1 HR, 17 Ks
1-2: .119 (7-for-59), 1 2B, 0 HR, 34 Ks
2-2: .159 (7-for-44), 1 2B, 3 HR, 20 Ks
3-2: .229 (8-for-35), 2 2B, 0 HR, 14 Ks
As you can see, once he is ahead, he has no problem doing away with hitters. However, getting ahead is the hard part, and therein lies another one of his problems. Above, you saw that batters hit .406 on the first pitch with four doubles and a home run. However, if he lived to throw another pitch, here is how batters fared against him, throwing a first pitch strike or a ball:
After 0-1: .189 (28-for-148), 8 2B, 2 HR, 11 BB, 56 Ks
After 1-0: .259 (28-for-108), 6 2B, 4 HR, 25 BB, 29 Ks
As is the case with most pitchers, Robles is much more effective when the first pitch he throws is strike one. So, Hansel Robles must get ahead in the count. If he falls behind, he must trust his slider and changeup. If he does those things, I would expect him to have a standout 2017 and emerge as a very good option for the Mets going forward.
