Finishing Line: 5 IP, 8 R, 8 ER, 11 H, 1 BB, 1 K, 1 HR
Defining Pitches
First Inning:
Early in the first inning, Jon Niese showed poor command of his fastball as he gave up a single to Peter Bourjos followed by a RBI double to Randal Grichuk, both on fastballs that missed low and over the plate.
Later in the first inning, Niese showed off his greatest trait as a pitcher in his moxie during a grueling ten pitch at-bat against Yadier Molina. On the eighth pitch of Molina’s at-bat, Niese threw 2-2 fastball chest high and on the inside corner of the plate which Molina barely fought off as he fouled the pitch into the umpire face guard. That fastball was the perfect pitch in that situation for the following three reasons:
- The previous seven pitches that Niese threw to Molina in this at-bat were thigh level or lower. By throwing a fastball chest high and inside, it forces Molina to change the eye level that he had become comfortable or had become accustomed to during this at-bat. Additionally, throwing the ball inside puts the ball closer to Molina’s eyes, making it naturally more enticing for Molina to swing at the pitch.
- Given the situation with one out and base runners on first and third base, Molina was probably guessing that Niese would keep the ball low in the strike zone to induce a ground ball double play.
- The chest high fastball would potentially set up Niese’s next pitch if needed, which would be an off-speed pitch located low and away in the strike zone in an attempt to induce a ground ball double play.
The next pitch was a curveball located low and away in the strike zone, which Molina was able to foul off. Two pitches later, Niese ended up forcing Molina into that ground ball double play on a low and away fastball.
Second Inning:
With one out and base runners on first and third base, the St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Michael Wacha came to the plate. The third pitch of Wacha’s at-bat was not only poor execution by Niese but poor pitch selection, classifying this as the worst pitch of the night for Niese.
Wacha looked awful on his first two bunt attempts against Niese’s curveball, as he missed the first curveball completely for a “swinging” strike and popped-up the second curveball into the backstop. On the third pitch of the at-bat, Niese threw a change-up low and over the plate which Wacha was able to bunt into play for a sacrifice bunt RBI.
In this situation, Niese didn’t need to be crafty or deceptive against Wacha, as Wacha is a young pitcher with little experience butting in the MLB. Due to this fact, we know that Wacha is not a good enough bunter to make an in-bat adjustment to all of a sudden gain the ability to get a bunt down against a curveball.
Additionally, inexperienced bunters such as Wacha, have the tendency to pop up a bunt against a curveball due to the natural reaction they have of dropping the barrel of their bat as the curveball begins to make its movement down and inside. A pop-up in this situation would result in an out with no advancement by the base runners and could have led to a double play if the Met who caught the pop-up was able to quickly throw it behind one of the base runners for a force out.
Takeaway
Niese is a pitcher whose success relies heavily on locating his fastball which is the catalyst to the rest of his pitching success as it allows him to mix up pitch selection by throwing more off-speed pitches. In last night’s game he showed very poor command of his fastball, consistently missing over the plate even on pitches that resulted in outs (see Matt Holiday’s fifth inning line out to center). Niese’s poor fastball command continually put him behind in counts as he threw first pitch fastballs for a called ball against nine of the 25 Cardinal hitters he faced.
Unfortunately for Niese, he doesn’t have a sharp enough curveball or change-up to create swing and misses to get back ahead in the count and in turn is forced to throw more fastballs. Additionally, he doesn’t throw his fastball hard enough to get poor located fastballs over the plate past opposing hitters. These fastballs become more predictable by the hitters and as a result get hit more often and hit harder into play.
A positive for Niese was his pitch selection when he was able to get deeper into counts with two strikes besides the Wacha at-bat noted above.
Against stronger hitting teams like the Cardinals, Niese will not be able to get past the middle innings without his fastball command. For Mets fans, do not overreact as most MLB pitchers have one or two games like this per season where the pitcher just doesn’t have their best repertoire of pitches and command coupled with facing an above average hitting team.
Key Stat
First pitch strikes: Out of the 25 Cardinal batters that Niese faced he threw only 12 first pitches strikes or balls in play. For those who don’t believe in the importance of first pitch strikes please take this into consideration: Thus far in the 2015 season, the Cardinals hitters are batting .207 when behind in the count as opposed to .325 when they are ahead in the count.
