We’re only six games into the 2019 MLB regular season, and for the most part, things are looking good for the New York Mets. It’s hard not to feel good about the team’s current state as they sport a 5-1 record heading into Thursday’s home opener against the Washington Nationals (although, we’ve been here before…like, last year).
Drawing concrete conclusions about player performances can be difficult with such a small sample size to analyze, but there’s nothing wrong with purely making some observations. Among all the good that’s been going on thus far, one player that’s really struggled out of the gate is outfielder Brandon Nimmo.
Knowing that New York has been this successful despite their on-base machine leadoff man slashing just .100/.280/.100 through his first 26 plate appearances makes what they’ve done much more impressive. One has to assume that when he finally gets his bat going, the offense can really start to fire on all cylinders. For now, though, we can only hope it’ll happen soon.
I couldn’t help but think about how different this storyline was at around the same time last year, so I had to look for confirmation. Obviously, the situations are a little different since Nimmo didn’t start 2018 as an every-day player, but comparing his first 26 plate appearances so far this year to his first 26 from last season is as glaringly different as you’d expect.
| Year | BB% | K% | OPS | ISO | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 15.4% | 15.4% | 1.250 | .400 | 232 |
| 2019 | 15.4% | 50.0% | .380 | .000 | 30 |
At least he’s eerily consistent with his walk rate, right? It’s just not so fun when it’s accompanied by a strikeout rate that’s among the worst in baseball when looking at qualified hitters. One of the things that’s changed between these two (very small) periods of time are some of his plate discipline numbers, which is easier to compare to one another since the same sizes are exactly the same.
To start 2018, Nimmo had posted a 35.2% overall swing rate, which included a 20.0% chase rate and a 63.2% swing rate on pitches in the strike zone. Those numbers have all increased rather dramatically thus far in 2019 (46.7%, 27.5%, and 71.8%, respectively). Many slumps are accompanied by an increase in swings (as well as swings and misses), so this isn’t necessarily earth-shattering news. However, the early approach from opposing pitchers against the outfielder is a little different.
Below is a table showing the rate at which Nimmo has seen fastballs, sliders, and first-pitch strikes both last year and the start of this season.
| Year | FB% | SL% | F-Strike% |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2018 | 58.2% | 11.5% | 63.0% |
| 2019 | 62.2% | 14.4% | 52.4% |
Typically, one would think that seeing Nimmo’s first-pitch strike rate drop would be a good thing since he’s someone who has been building a reputation on being a selective hitter. That doesn’t help as much when you’re in a slump, pressing to try and get out of it, and end up swinging more often as a result.
So what does this all mean when it comes to his terrible start? Not much outside of the fact that it’s just been a week he’d like to forget. We’d likely notice a downturn in production of this magnitude at any point in the year, but this tough stretch is certainly more magnified at the moment because the 2019 season is only six games old. One of the things that made him consistently great last season was the consistency in his approach, regardless of the results, and we have to hope this will be a trend that ends up continuing into the future despite what we’ve seen so far.
Heading to Citi Field for the home opener will be a good — albeit arbitrary — way to clear the slate again and start over. And thankfully, all it takes is one swing, or one plate appearance to get himself in the right space again to be the on-base machine he was for New York last season.
