Another start, and still fans and media alike are startled by the lack of progress Matt Harvey is making in his starts in 2016.
Harvey has been the tale of two pitchers so far this season, as his stats in innings 1-3 stand at a 2.00 ERA, 17 strikeouts, two walks, and holding opponents to a .583 OPS. Which lines up with how he pitched in those first three innings in 2015, where he posted a 2.28 ERA, had close to a 5-1 strikeouts to walk ratio, and held opponents to a .584 OPS.
Counter that to innings 4-6, where Harvey’s ERA nearly quadruples to 7.88, has more walks than strikeouts (nine to eight), and his opponents OPS sits at .998, or to put it another way, about what Michael Conforto is slashing in the OPS department thus far.
After last night’s 3-0 loss to the lowly Atlanta Braves, Terry Collins talked about the struggles Harvey has endured so far, and whether the amount of innings Harvey exerted last season has had some sort of holdover effect.
“I don’t have all the answers, except not everybody is going to be good every night,” Collins said after Harvey worked 5 ²/₃ innings — the third time in six starts he failed to complete six innings.
“As it starts to get nicer and a little bit warmer, maybe then we’ll make a determination if the arm strength is going to come back or if it’s going to be one of those years where, due to all the innings last year, we’re going to see the effects of it.” (New York Post)
As soon as Collins brought up the infamous “innings” word from last season, one had to expect that Harvey’s super-agent Scott Boras would have a thing or two to say about that matter.
It was Boras who famously chimed in late last year when Harvey was on the verge of hitting his projected innings limit for the season. When the Mets made the strong push into playoff contention, that innings restriction seemed to soften, as the Mets knew they were going to need Harvey to be one of their aces in the postseason.
Boras stuck by the medical opinions by various surgeons, including Dr. James Andrews who performed the Tommy John surgery on Harvey in October 2013. The Mets contended that the initial 180-inning limit was a “soft” number to shoot for, and not necessarily the end all be all.
“Expert opinion by medical practitioners is not a soft number,” Boras countered. “There are no soft numbers. These are medical practitioners providing opinions about when a pitcher is at risk, and when a pitcher isn’t at risk.” (SI.com)
Including the postseason, Harvey would go on to pitch in 216 innings in 2015, a record for a pitcher coming off of Tommy John surgery.
Which made spring training important to see whether Harvey would suffer any setbacks with the increased workload, and whether he’d bounce back with the same tenacity he had for most of the 2015 season.
And as it goes, Harvey had mixed results in spring. Early on his velocity looked good, and the talk was about how his slider was back to near 2013 form, with a sharp bite that drove hitter’s mad. But then Harvey had trouble with his command, and then had to deal with the blood clot near the end of spring. And then transitioned into three tough losses in a row to start the year.
Which brings us back to the talk of Harvey and what seems to be troubling him after the first month of the season. Boras didn’t have much of an answer, other than to say he didn’t feel like Harvey had anything physically wrong.
“There’s something unknown that we’re looking at. There’s an unknown here that’s operating. We’re figuring it out as we go. I’m very confident that Matt is physically healthy and very confident that adjustments will be made.”
Time will tell whether Harvey can return to his old form. Clearly Harvey’s velocity hasn’t been where he normally lives, averaging 94.1 miles-per-hour according to Fangraphs, down almost two miles-per-hour from 2015. And Harvey’s renewed slider that many thought he had rediscovered in spring is also down about 1.5 miles-per-hour less than last season, averaging 87.9 miles-per-hour.
Delving deeper into how often Harvey is getting hit, Fangraphs’ plate disciple stats show Harvey is getting hit more than he ever has both inside and outside the strike zone. On the year, Harvey’s O-Contact%, or percentage of time batter’s make contact on pitches outside the strike zone is currently at 69.1%, his career high before this season was in his rookie campaign where he was at 63.1%.
And the same applies for Harvey’s Z-Contact%, the percentage of times batters make contact at pitches thrown inside the strike zone. Harvey registers at 87.4%, also a career high. Before the season, 2013 was is high, at 84.5%. However, Harvey could get away with that then, because his swinging strike percentage was at its highest registered, at 12.6%. Counter that to his 9.5% this season, and it’s no wonder that Harvey is having trouble-putting hitters away.
For his part, Boras seemed to imply when speaking with The Post’s Ken Davidoff that the extra innings Harvey threw might still be the lingering factor in his rough start this season.
“For the sequencing of a great player, you’d always like it to be ideal,” Boras said. “The playoffs demand a player to be a great teammate, and Matt Harvey’s intentions always were to be a great teammate. The sequencing of his development from his surgery is something that was not ideal. There is a lot of unknowns that come from that interruption.”
In Collins post game press conference on Monday Tuesday night, he hoped that the warmer weather would help determine if Harvey’s arm strength would return to the same form fans have been accustomed to. Harvey has pitched well in colder months for his career. In April of last year, he was 4-0 with a 3.04 ERA. In 2013, Harvey’s April was also 4-0 with a miniscule 1.56 ERA. Needless to say, Harvey isn’t used to such a slow start to his season.
I also think Harvey shouldn’t have pitched last night if he truly wasn’t feeling well. Why put him out there if he’s under the weather? He had to receive fluids from the team to get him ready to pitch last night. Even against one of the worst offenses in the league in the Braves, why would you put a guy that is already under the microscope this year out in the line of fire? They could’ve turned to Logan Verrett to make yet another spot start for them, who ended up coming into the game yesterday in the ninth.
Thankfully the rest of the rotation has been rounding into form, with Steven Matz pitching phenomenally Wednesday, his fourth straight win on the season. Syndergaard and deGrom have been solid, and Colon has been his usual reliable self. For now, the rest of the rotation has made up for the poor start to Harvey’s season. However, Harvey remains a staple in this rotation, and will need to perform to his standards, or face the ever mounting questions on his once golden arm.
