Manager Luis Rojas revealed to the media on Saturday that starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco began throwing off a slope (not the rubber) at Citi Field as he begins to “ramp up” his throwing program. Carrasco, who has been plagued by a torn hamstring, could offer a much-needed arm to stabilize the Mets’ rotation and could potentially push them over the top as New York approaches the stretch run.
In his age-34 season, Carrasco has endured more than most in baseball. A cancer survivor, he missed most of the 2019 season while undergoing treatments for Leukemia. He was able to return successfully in 2020 and pitch to a 2.91 ERA over 12 starts for a Cleveland Indians team that went to the playoffs.
Carrasco, at his peak, pitched to 10.6 fWAR over his last two full seasons in 2017 and 2018, and then 1.5 fWAR in the COVID-shortened 2020. That 1.5 fWAR was good for 22nd in baseball among qualified starting pitchers, tying him with Gerrit Cole and and Zac Gallen. His K/9 of 10.85 was also good for 12th in the league, while his eight homers allowed was tied with a host of other qualified starters for eighth best.
Carrasco’s 2020 season saw him go 3-4 with that 2.91 ERA over the course of 68 innings. In those starts, he produced a 44.3% ground ball rate, which would put him ahead of Taijuan Walker‘s 39.6% rate and behind Marcus Stroman‘s 53.4% clip so far in 2021. Pitching behind one of baseball’s better defenses would bode well for Carrasco, considering he sees 75% of his outs come through balls put in play for his career. That’s not to say he can’t get the strikeout, though — after his K/9 sat at 9.23 in 2016, it’s been between 10.80 an 10.90 each of the last three years.
Based off the results Walker and Stroman have seen in the strikeout department in 2021, it’s not outrageous to expect another jump in strikeout numbers for Carrasco under pitching coach Jeremy Hefner and his assistant, Jeremy Accardo. The increase in strikeouts has been subtle for Stroman, pitching to a 7.9 K/9 compared to his career average of 7.4. For Walker, his current mark of 9.3 is an entire strikeout better than his career average of 8.3.
The question with Carrasco, aside from his health, rests in what can and should the Mets expect out of him? When healthy, he makes a solid case to be New York’s second-best starting pitcher. His best two-year stretch came in 2017 and 2018, when he pitched to the aforementioned 10.6 fWAR to go along with a 3.33 ERA. For reference, Stroman’s best two-year stretch came in 2016 and 2017 when he pitched to a combined 6.7 fWAR and a 3.73 ERA. Walker has yet to put together back-to-back seasons of 1.0-plus fWAR.
If he can return to his prior self, Carrasco would be an incredible asset to a rotation that already includes three hurlers with an ERA below 2.50. That being said, it is obviously no guarantee Carrasco returns to that form after missing at least half of the season. If he can, though, the Mets would be setting themselves up to run away with a lackluster National League East and separate themselves from the pack. New York hasn’t run the NL East wire-to-wire since 2006, but are positioned to essentially do so in 2021. Seemingly, the two missing pieces are offensive consistency and another reliable starter for the back of the rotation.
Carrasco slotting in and being some semblance of what many are expecting from him to be can solve one of those issues with ease and at no additional cost to the Mets.
