Mark Simon of ESPN, took to GM Sandy Alderson’s “10 win” comments from earlier this month and decided to measure that improvement in WAR. After compiling a total of 29.6 WAR last year (ESPN WAR not FanGraphs), a 10 win improvement would put the Mets a shade under an overall total of 40. According to Simon,”nine teams got at least that much WAR from their rosters in 2014. All nine won at least 88 games. The average win total among them was 91.8. Eight of those teams made the playoffs…” Who does he see as the big contributors in Queens?
Obviously, Matt Harvey and David Wright are both at the top of this list. Each player has been tasked with producing a 5.0 WAR season next year and if both these guys can stay healthy, I think that’s a realistic figure. Wright’s last season with a 5.0+ WAR was 2013 when he posted 5.9 in only 112 games, some regression on that production played over 140 games could easily be valued at 5.0+.
Honestly, I stay the course for the majority of this article, but I had to point out that he produced a 2.5 WAR season in 2010 and that makes no sense- regardless of his defense. He played 157 games, had an OBP of .354, slugged at a .503 clip, hit 29 home runs and knocked in 103 RBI’s, yet that was somehow less valuable than his 2014 season which was worth 2.8 WAR. What?
For Harvey, I think he’ll bounce back with a big 2015 campaign. How that ligament holds up over his career is debatable, but this year, I expect him to produce a 6.0-7.0 WAR season. It’s a bold prediction, but it was confirmed that his velocity was right back where it was prior to the injury, that was all I needed to see to ensure great production in the short run.
Jacob deGrom was apparently snubbed by most projection systems who see him regressing significantly, but Simon noted that if he is able to replicate last year’s 9-6, 2.69 ERA pace over 32 games, he’ll be worth about 4.50 WAR. Jacob got terrible run support, so I’m assuming his win % is in some way impacting that projection. I’d think a 2.69 ERA over 32 starts would be worth more than 4.5 wins over a replacement player, but the stat is more of a gauge, so I’ll let it be.
Travis d’Arnaud was projected at 3.0 WAR. I think this drastically undervalues the power he’ll add to the middle of the lineup and WAR does not calculate any value for pitch framing, so those who prefer their catchers be measured by traditional standards- WAR is your go to guy. To be honest, I see d’Arnaud adding to the lineup what David Wright will likely give up in regression. TDA is capable of posting over a 4.0+ WAR season and I think that’s what the Captain will produce as well, so the net/net still gets the team towards October baseball.
Wilmer Flores. This one is tough because at shortstop, Flores isn’t maximizing his potential, but 2.0 is a low number and here’s my logic (coming from a guy who despises the idea of him at SS). Jhonny Peralta was able to generate 5.8 WAR last year with serviceable defense (actually, great defense according to the metrics- similar eye to stat sheet translation that Flores has), a .263 batting average, 21 home runs and 75 RBI’s. It’s a little early to don Flores as the next Peralta, but that’s essentially what everyone is expecting him to produce, so I think a 2.0 WAR is well below what he’ll actually generate. To be conservative, but also fair, I’d give Flores a 3.0 WAR on the year. Either way, I really respect his work ethic and I genuinely hope he proves everyone, including me, dead wrong.
Zack Wheeler was way undervalued in this analysis. The grading was fair based on his prior stats, but his career has kept pace with names like Justin Verlander, Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke so 2.0 has to be the bottom of what the Mets are expecting. I see Wheeler quietly emerging as a bona fide ace in 2015 and if he repeats the same level of growth he measured in 2014, I’d wager his WAR at the end of the regular season to be right around Harvey and deGrom’s. I’ll put him at 4.5 WAR. Bold, but he’s shown steady progressive growth and I’ll take that any day over a flash in the pan.
Juan Lagares has the ability to slap pitches low and away, but there’s little power reward in that approach and hopefully the Mets made that the top priority for him this offseason. He showed a brief flash of power after pitchers stopped going away on him and started going inside. When he pulls the ball, there’s a lot of power potential in his bat. If he can hit .280 with doubles power and 10-15 home runs, his defense will carry that WAR figure well above the 5.0 mark, Simon seemed to agree.
Lucas Duda showed a lot of promise last year and in many more ways than what we saw on the surface. Offensively, I think his walk and home run totals will stay the same, but there’s good reason to believe his average and OBP will go up a tick. 2014 was a year of constant adjustment for him. First, he had to prove he was a viable starter. Then he had to prove he could hit cleanup. Then he had to prove he could hit breaking pitches. Then, he had to start hitting lefties. What’s encouraging is he accomplished all those goals by the end of the season- even lefties.
After the All-Star break, Duda put up some interesting numbers against LHP, hitting .250/.333/.375 against southpaws at Citi Field and holding his own against lefties coming out of the pen (.267/.333/.367). Understandably, he was much worse against starters (.111/.167/.111). However, the one stat that didn’t correlate to anything were his numbers against lefties on the road (.162/.220/.189), not sure what that was all about. I think he’ll still struggle against tough starting LHP’s, but he played good defense and showed a knack for picking out tough throws in the dirt so I think it’s important to keep him in the lineup daily.
Also, in my mind, how a player ends the year says a lot. In the month of September against all left-handed pitchers, Duda went 7-25 with a .280/.345/.440 slashline. Not exactly a whale of a sample size, but it shows that- along with the other improvements he’s had to make- he can adjust at the big league level and he can hit lefties. The Mets don’t need him to produce at the same level he does against RHP, they just need him to keep the lineup moving so his teammates can pick up the slack, great teams do this. I think he’s capable of being a decent singles hitter against southpaws with better defense than the stats will tell you and because of that, I see his WAR being closer to 4.0+.
Little attention was given to Daniel Murphy, although Simon admits to giving him a boost based off of his offensive prowess. He pegged Murphy between 2.0-2.5 WAR which is anywhere from fair to slightly optimistic in my opinion. Murphy is a valuable offensive asset, but his defense is a liability considering Zack Wheeler and Jon Niese generate a lot of groundballs and this organization’s success is literally founded on maximizing the results of the pitching staff. I think the writing is on the wall for Daniel and trading him will open the door for the unforeseen x-factor (i.e. prospect being called up) who Simon believes will give the Mets a “boost”.
Other factors contributing to a 40 WAR season are the bullpen and the bench. Personally, this bullpen looks great and the bench is poised to add the right amount of offense. It’s no secret, the starters are going to have to stay healthy in order for the above scenarios to happen.
What do you ladies and gentleman think? Are the Mets capable of producing a 40 WAR season and/or making the playoffs with this current roster?
I think so.
Lets! Go! Mets!
