Analyzing Why David Peterson Should Be The Mets’ Fifth Starter

Entering training camp, David Peterson and Tylor Megill were suppose to by vying for the sixth rotation spot. However, due to the injury suffered by José Quintana, the battle between Peterson and Megill quickly became for the fifth and final rotation spot. With the regular season just five day away, it is clear who should get that spot.

The no-brainer choice is David Peterson. The 27-year-old lefty has 12 innings of scoreless baseball under his belt this spring training. Over these innings, he has only allowed one hit while striking out 13. He has been one of the Mets’ top players in camp.

Though, when evaluating who should win a spot out of camp, prior history should be taken into consideration as well. A small sample size in spring training should not be the only aspect taken into account. Well, as we have seen in the past, the southpaw Peterson has shown the ability to be an effective bottom-of-the-rotation starter before. Last season, he started 19 games posting a very respectable 3.86 ERA. Across the 91 innings pitched as a starter, he struck out 110 and only allowed 81 hits.

Further, Peterson did a great job inducing swing and misses with his sweeping slider – as his 81st ranked whiff rate demonstrates. This helped him register the aforementioned strong strikeout rate of 27.8 percent which was good for the league’s 79th percentile. He was also able to limit hits (57th percentile xBA). This all resulted in the strong ERA and an xERA under 4.00, both figures representing a strong bottom-of-the-rotation pitcher.

Peterson’s spring performances just backed up what he did last year. There really is not an argument for anyone besides Peterson as the team’s fifth starter to begin the season. If he can get the walk and occasional control issues in check, Peterson should be able to emerge as not only a fill in for the injured Quintana, but a staple in the rotation for the foreseeable future.

As mentioned above, the other likeliest candidate to fill the last starter role was Tylor Megill. Megill got a surprise Opening Day start last year, though, his numbers by the end of the season were extremely lackluster. This was largely thanks to a woeful performance against the Washington Nationals in his seventh start of last season where he allowed eight runs in only 1 1/3 innings. Megill then missed parts of the rest of the season due to injury.

All in all, Megill posted a 5.13 ERA and 4.31 xERA last year. He was also trending downward before injury ultimately derailing his season, as he allowed nine runs across four starts prior to the blow up and subsequent injury against Washington. Despite this, a fully healthy and slimmed-down Megill looked poised to battle for a starting rotation spot this spring.

Overall, his performance wasn’t bad at all. It started off very strong, before he faltered in his last two appearances. That includes yesterday, where Megill allowed three runs and walked five in only five innings. In total, the right-handed pitcher gave up seven runs over 17 innings (3.71 ERA) this spring. He also gave up 14 hits while striking out 12, but walked a staggering 13. Though, he did say after the game, those walks may be a result of him trying new things. Which, given its spring training, makes sense.

At the end of the day, Megill made a solid case for himself. Though, Peterson was lights out, and also has the historical data that backs him up as what should be the fifth starter come the second game of the season (when the fifth starter spot projects to pitch). Megill should prove to be great insurance behind Peterson and first in line if something else happens to the rotation. You can never have too much depth, and, luckily for the Mets, looks like they have just that.