The non-tender deadline is quietly one of the more momentous occasions on MLB’s offseason calendar as teams finalize their decisions on whether or not to extend a contract to eligible players by the Nov. 17 deadline, an influx of new free agents hit the market with a surprise player or two mixed into that group. For example, Cody Bellinger and Jeimer Candelario, both of the Chicago Cubs, were non-tendered by the Los Angeles Dodgers and Detroit Tigers, respectively, following the 2022 season and proceeded to turn in two of the best individual campaigns of their careers in 2023.

There is no shortage of suitable examples of non-tendered players going on to become impact players with their new clubs, which is all to say that the entire process bears watching as teams modify their rosters ahead of 2024.

The New York Mets have 16 arbitration-eligible players, which is tied for the second-most in the league. MLB Trade Rumors’ projected 2024 salaries for each player are listed below:

We’ll likely see quite a bit of shuffling on the roster with a new regime coming to town, meaning most players on this list could be on the chopping block. Pete Alonso is a lock to be tendered a contract prior to his walk year, and it’s hard to imagine Joey Lucchesi or David Peterson are in any danger of hitting the open market either, considering the Mets’ need for quality pitching depth both in the rotation and bullpen coupled with the fact that both have multiple years of control left.

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It’s hard to get a read on Daniel Vogelbach‘s case as of this moment. He was relatively productive in 104 games for the Mets this season, slashing .233/.339/.404 with 13 home runs and a 109 wRC+ after being one of the team’s more reliable hitters down the stretch in 2022 following a trade from the Pittsburgh Pirates at the trade deadline. He’s carved out a niche role as the team’s designated hitter against righties, but his limitations otherwise make him somewhat of an awkward fit on the roster moving forward. The 30-year-old was non-tendered by David Stearns once before while with the Milwaukee Brewers following the 2021 campaign, and it remains to be seen whether or not we’ll get a repeat of that outcome next month.

Drew Smith is another interesting case, given the Mets need for pitching depth and flashes of recent success at the major league level. The 30-year-old had a 2.40 ERA in 31 games for the Mets in 2021 and a 3.33 ERA in 43 games in 2022. Smith took a step back in 2023 with a 4.15 ERA, along with a career-high 4.6 BB/9 and a 1.40 WHIP. With his salary projected for $2.3 million for 2024, the Mets will have to decide whether they can get more value on the free agent market if they non-tender Smith.

The acquisition of Trevor Gott as part of the Chris Flexen trade with the Seattle Mariners in July felt like a savvy move for a controllable reliever by Billy Eppler at the time, but those feelings quickly soured. Gott struggled to find his footing during his early days with the organization, posting a 7.04 ERA over 10 outings in July before recording a 4.91 ERA in 13 appearances in August. He did finish the season on a high note, however, and his 3.43 FIP in a Mets uniform, as compared to a 4.34 ERA, suggests there’s more than meets the eye with Gott. Projected to make $2 million in arbitration, Gott excels at limiting hard contact and is a mismatch against righties, perhaps incentivizing Stearns to keep an experienced veteran that he was familiar with from their shared days with the Brewers last season.

DJ Stewart was a feel-good story this season, seemingly coming out of nowhere following a July call-up to slash .238/.328/.494 with 11 home runs and a 125 wRC+ in 58 games with New York. Most of his output came in an otherworldly August, where he hit .308/.378/.727 with a 195 wRC+ and eight homers. Stewart, who’s forecasted to make $1.5 million next season, would make sense as a fourth outfielder on next year’s roster due to his power potential and the fact that he would have a minor league option, but at the same time, his poor defense and base running may make him a causality of a potential 40-man crunch as the Mets turn elsewhere.

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Luis Guillorme is one of New York’s longest-tenured players, but it appears that he may have fallen out of favor. Guillorme was a valuable bench piece for the Mets in 2022, finishing the year with a .273/.351/.340 slash line and six Outs Above Average across three positions over 102 games. In 2023, however, the emergence of several top infield prospects coupled with a calf injury and underperformance on Guillorme’s end led to a demotion to Triple-A Syracuse in May and just 120 plate appearances in 54 games as his production on both sides of the ball took a major step back. While it would be reasonable to expect him to at least bounce back defensively, there simply may not be an opportunity for him to crack the roster in the future.

Jeff Brigham, Sam Coonrod, John Curtiss, and Elieser Hernández were all brought in by Eppler last offseason as part of a philosophy centered around flexibility and depth among the Mets’ bullpen options due to each player having minor league options left. That plan failed to materialize, however, and all four pitchers are in real jeopardy of being let go. Brigham and Hernández were both acquired on the non-tender deadline from the Miami Marlins last offseason, but only Brigham would reach the major league level in 2023. He appeared in 37 games for the Mets and put up a 5.26 ERA and 5.96 FIP to go with 2.15 HR/9, while Hernández opened the year on the injured list with a right shoulder strain and couldn’t work his way back.

As for Curtiss, he was awarded a spot on the Opening Day roster after working his way back from Tommy John surgery and impressing in spring training. He would appear in just 15 games for the big-league club, however, recording a 4.58 ERA while being shuttled between Syracuse and Queens for most of the year before being shut down in August due to elbow surgery. Curtiss, much like Vogelbach, was acquired and later non-tendered by Stearns during his Brewers tenure, so there’s a slight possibility that he is kept around if healthy due to that pre-existing relationship.

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Coonrod initially looked like he may break camp with the Mets back in March, but a right lat strain landed him on the injured list until August. From there, he made 10 appearances with the team to close the year and struggled to the tune of a 9.45 ERA and 10.80 BB/9. Coonrod is a hard thrower with tantalizing stuff, so there’s a world where the front office bets on his upside due to his low salary projection for 2024.

Rafael Ortega, Danny Mendick, Tim Locastro and Michael Perez all appear likely to be non-tendered when the time comes. Perez was a trade acquisition from the Pirates shortly before the deadline in 2022 and provided organizational depth for the Mets as he spent essentially the entire 2023 season in Triple-A outside of eight plate appearances in the majors. Ortega was signed to a minor league deal in June after being non-tendered by the Cubs in 2022 and received regular playing time after the deadline as he hit .219/.341/.272 in 136 plate appearances while also contributing as both a base runner and defender.

Mendick, like Ortega, was also non-tendered after the 2022 season by the Chicago White Sox, coming off of a torn ACL and slashed .185/.232/.277 in 69 plate appearances this season. Locastro would appear to be the most likely of the bunch to be retained, however, as he played in 43 games with the Mets following his inclusion on the Opening Day roster and slashed .232/.338/.393 with a 109 wRC+ and six stolen bases.