Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

Set to become a free agent next off-season, outfielder Michael Conforto entered this season with huge aspirations and was aiming to build off his very successful performance during the 60-game schedule, unfortunately, this upcoming winter may not run as smoothly as originally planned.

Coming off one of the most productive offensive showings of his career, where he posted nine home runs, 31 RBIs, a .412 BABIP, a 157 wRC+ score and a slashing line of .322/.412/.515/.927 over 54 games in 2020, the New York Mets were expecting Conforto to serve as a key run producer once again in 2021. But sadly, that hasn’t been the case for the 28-year-old during his seventh season in the majors.

Unlike last season, the 6’1″ outfielder hasn’t performed up to his high expectations this time around, leading to some very disappointing offensive results for someone who had seemingly established himself as a reliable hitter over the last few years. Changing that narrative about himself, and not in a positive way, the left-hander has struggled to hit for contact and power, which were two areas he excelled at previously.

Most shockingly, Conforto has experienced a major power outage at the plate, as he’s by far recorded the lowest SLG (.365) and ISO (.147) of his major-league career. To put these woes into perspective, the last time he endured this kind of power slump during a full season was in 2016, where the then 23-year-old recorded a .414 SLG and a .194 ISO.

Nearing the final month of the regular season, there isn’t much time remaining for the former 10th-round pick to salvage his performance before he potentially reaches the open market in a couple of months. Having said that, the 2017 National League All-Star has improved his play recently that could allow him to finish strong down the stretch.

As unproductive as Conforto has been at times this season, finishing the campaign on a high note could help him make up for some of his prior ineffectiveness, and that’s exactly the path the corner outfielder is currently following as he’s enjoyed plenty of success at the dish this month.

Credit: Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports

Finding his stroke offensively as of late, the Oregon State standout has been riding one of his best stretches of the season since Aug. 7, resulting in four doubles, three home runs, nine RBIs, a .220 ISO, a .350 BABIP, a .384 wOBA, a 146 wRC+ score and a slashing of .288/.382/.508/.891 over his last 68 plate appearances.

As for his results before this recent turnaround, the former Beaver wasn’t anywhere near as effective through the first four months of the season, which saw him create 12 doubles, six home runs, 24 RBIs, a .128 ISO, a .246 BABIP, a .301 wOBA, a measly 92 wRC+ score and a troubling slashing line of .201/.331/.329/.660 over his first 281 plate appearances.

While most of the Mets’ offense has remained unproductive, aside from teammates Brandon Nimmo and Pete Alonso, Conforto has served as one of the top hitters in their lineup during this span. As a result, he’s generated the highest wRC+ score, OBP, wOBA, the second-highest SLG and ISO, the third-highest BABIP, AVG and fWAR rating (0.4) among all hitters on the team with at least 20 plate appearances, according to FanGraphs.

Along with this sudden increase in slugging, the Washington native has also improved his ability to create hard contact, which is an aspect he struggled with earlier in the season. Though he’s never been known as someone who produces a significant amount of hard-hit balls, this current stretch is proving otherwise, allowing him to locate holes in opposing defenses despite hitting almost half (43.5%) of his balls in play on the ground.

Prior to his offensive resurgence, Conforto registered a reasonable 38.7% hard-hit rate and an 88.4 mph average exit velocity from Apr. 5 to Aug. 6 – both of which were on par with his previous career marks. But since Aug. 7, he’s blown past each of those totals, resulting in an eye-popping 44.2% hard-hit rate and a 91.1 mph average exit velocity.

Obviously, these outstanding batted-ball metrics have been created over a fairly small sample size, just 41 events, although it’s still very encouraging to witness this increased hard contact ahead of the final month of the 2021 campaign.

Digging deeper into Conforto’s offensive performance, the veteran hitter didn’t fare well against cutters or sinkers earlier this season, recording the majority of his damage against four-seamers. Putting those struggles in the rear-view mirror, he’s completely overcome his woes since the calendar shifted to August and has thrived against both of those offerings recently.

Even though opposing pitchers have only thrown him a combined 61 pitches of this variety since Aug. 7, that hasn’t prevented the veteran lefty from excelling against cutting and sinking fastballs, as he’s posted a .615 AVG, a .385 xAVG, a 1.308 SLG, a .860 xSLG, a .500 ISO, a .750 BABIP, a .788 wOBA, a .547 xwOBA and a 97.3 mph average exit velocity through 15 plate appearances.

Conforto’s huge home run Saturday came off a sinker.

In comparison, “Scooter” compiled a total of 65 plate appearances against cutters and sinkers prior to this date, producing an underwhelming .170 AVG, .249 xAVG, .208 SLG, .367 xSLG, .038 ISO, .225 BABIP, .262 wOBA, .346 xwOBA and an 84.8 mph average exit velocity.

Similar to Conforto’s overall results during this recent stretch, his stellar metrics when facing cutting and sinking fastballs probably aren’t completely sustainable over a much larger sample size. In saying that, there’s no reason to suggest he’ll ultimately regress to his previous struggles either, especially if he’s able to continue generating high amounts of hard contact.

Considering there’s still a massive gap in the standings between the Mets and the NL East Division-leading Atlanta Braves, receiving sustained offensive production from the former top prospect through the rest of the season could certainly be beneficial for an offense that remains inconsistent. If successful, achieving this goal could help the impending free agent increase his value on the open market in the off-season.

As of now, it’d likely be extremely difficult for Conforto to pursue a lucrative contract in free agency, which could potentially increase his chances of returning to New York in 2022. But if he were to conclude the regular season on a high note, odds are he’d probably attract considerably more interest over the winter.

Regardless of what the future holds for the Mets’ outfielder, this offensive awakening appears to have provided him a prime opportunity to turn the corner on what’s been an extremely disappointing season up to this point.