A quick update live from Citi Field:
Sandy Alderson confirmed once again that there is a “very high” probability Wilmer Flores is the Opening Day shortstop.
“I don’t think the Jed Lowrie signing increases the probability, because we weren’t really in on Lowrie,” Alderson said.
“To that extent the probability of Wilmer Flores as the Opening Day shortstop remains about the same, but I think it’s very high.”
Surveying The Mets SS Landscape
The starting shortstop role for the NY Mets will be resolved once and for all, although not until mid 2015 when it makes more sense to execute a move. There are too many moving variables this winter and not enough willingness from trade suitors to entertain the Mets’ offers, or vice versa. The team has internal options at shortstop, with high offensive ceilings, but the jury is still out on whether any of them have the range to stick at the position defensively. So what can change between now and the end of the July trade deadline that gives the Mets another opportunity to seek an upgrade?
First, free agency is an option for the Mets, but I’m not buying this as the route Sandy Alderson is going to take. Players like Jed Lowrie and Stephen Drew were once incredible defenders at their position, with moderate to above average pop in their bats, but they’re at an age where even their defense starts to become unreliable. Making anything other than a one year offer seems to go against what the organization is aiming for, a younger core of players under team friendly contracts, but anything is possible so I won’t eliminate this entirely.
In reality, another three and half months of baseball should be enough time to make a final decision on Wilmer Flores at shortstop. Regardless if he plays well there or not, I think Flores will be moved to second base permanently the moment Daniel Murphy is traded, which I also believe is imminent. Teams like the Giants, who have checked in on Murphy, may feel inclined to test their internal options at second and third base to start the season. However, their last ditch efforts may prove fruitless in the middle of a playoff race, which sends Murphy’s value upward. This creates potential for a return of high end prospects, or it could also be the catalyst in a three way trade that lands the Mets a bona fide shortstop.
The trade market will be much more defined by July as well. Troy Tulowitzki will always be a long shot, but the Yankees acquiring Didi Gregorius means the most aggressive suitor is out of the equation. There are other teams that are hungry for Tulo, but everyone will want to see how the superstar returns from hip surgery before entertaining any calls from the Rockies’ front office. If he returns to the player he was in the first half of 2014 though, it’d be hard not to pick up the phone, especially if it’s ringing. A battery combo of Noah Syndergaard and Kevin Plawecki is likely where the conversation starts, but adding his first half performance of 2014 to a Mets team on pace for 85-86 wins, immediately vaults them to the top of the NL East.
The two Settle Mariners shortstops, Brad Miller and Chris Taylor, have consistently been mentioned in talks with the Mets, but so far nothing serious has manifested. One of those two players will own the M’s starting shortstop position out of spring training, but I imagine even the slightest lag in performance will make way for the one that’s on the bench. Miller’s offensive upside is said to be high, but the jury is still out on whether his defense can stick at short and he struggled at the plate last season, eventually making way for Taylor.
The latter was not ranked as highly as Miller within the organization, but he took advantage of an early call up and hit .287, played outstanding defense and flashed above average speed on the base paths with five steals in 47 games. Both players had abnormally skewed BABIP’s, which is never concrete in small sample sizes, but undoubtedly factored into the Steamer projections that show both Miller and Taylor having similar seasons in 2015.
Taylor’s BABIP was outrageously above the league average of around .300 in 2014, but his career BABIP in the minors is consistently high, so it could be indicative of how well he hits the ball. Then again, Miller simply needs to reach the potential he’s been tabbed with in order to be back in competition with Taylor and his BABIP suggests he’ll improve on last year’s campaign significantly. If that’s the case for these two offensively, it seems more logical to seek out the player with better defense.
There’s always the possibility that the Cubs and Mets come to a mutual agreement on the value of each others prospects and in that case, Starlin Castro would re-enter the discussions. No matter how well the current All-Star is performing, prospects always carry hope for a higher ceiling and that’s exactly what Chicago sees in Javier Baez and Addison Russell.
Perhaps the middle to back end of their rotation falls apart at the same time that Baez, Russell and top prospect Kris Bryant are all looking for full time jobs as infielders. In that scenario, a package of Jon Niese, representing a solid #3 starter and top catching prospect Kevin Plawecki may get a deal done. I’m not advocating this, but if the Mets plan to retain all their elite pitching, regardless of almost any deal, this is one of a few scenarios where the Amazins’ could take advantage of a buyer’s market. There’s a lot that needs to happen in order for this scenario to manifest, so it’s fair to dismiss these two clubs as future trade partners. That being said, circumstances always have a way of changing down the road.
Lastly, Korean shortstop Jung-Ho Kang has been a name catching fire with the Mets over the last few days as MLB clubs get prepared to make a bid on the international free agent. I question how serious the Mets are about getting involved because it’ll require some frivolous spending. The idea of ‘bidding’ does not fit into the Mets business model because it requires shoveling $2-$10 million just to have the right to sign the player. In all fairness, the Mets often get chastised for a lack of spending when the situation genuinely doesn’t warrant it, regardless of the dollar amount. Yes, Kang is putting up big power numbers, but you have to question whether he’ll connect like that against American pitching. As hot as this topic is right now, I just don’t see it happening, whether I’m right about his abilities or not.
It’s too early to confirm it, but common sense pegs Wilmer Flores as the opening day shortstop. If that’s the case, the front office should monitor external options now and up to the July trade deadline and be prepared to vault the club past the 85-86 win club they’re currently set as. Flores may run away with the job after the hard work he’s put into his fitness and conditioning this offseason. If that’s the case, the conversation turns to retaining Daniel Murphy, or trading him to clear a path for top prospect Dilson Herrera. If the shortstop position needs to be revisited, the team will have more clarity in July and in a better position to strike a deal that gets the club back to October baseball in 2015.
