One of the primary concerns heading into the Mets offseason is the third base situation. There are two legitimate free agent candidates in Eduardo Nunez and Todd Frazier. 

In this era of baseball, Statcast is one of the more important parts of the game. Teams are starting to look at it over scouting. The Astros are one of the organizations primarily focusing on it to judge talent going forward.

Of these four players, Statcast really looks poorly on Eduardo Nunez more than anyone else in the third base market. Nunez has a .275 xwOBA according to Baseball Savant, which means .275 expected wOBA. wOBA takes into account the value of certain hits over others. For example, it values hits like doubles and home runs more than it values walks or singles. It makes sense since a double, triple, or home run is more likely to help a team score a run than a single or walk. Nunez had a wOBA of .348 this past season and his xwOBA is .275. For reference, Rene Rivera had a .273 wOBA with the Mets in 2017.

A stat like xwOBA paints a better picture than BABIP (bating average of balls in play) because BABIP does not account for walks or home runs. For example, Brandon Nimmo had a BABIP of .360 but his xwOBA was .346, not a far cry from his real wOBA of .353.

Nunez had a ground ball rate of 53.4% but hit only .332/.332/.359 with a 84 wRC+, and .301 wOBA on balls on the ground. His numbers on line drives and fly balls are what really carried his 2017 season. He had a 132 wRC+ on fly balls and 260 wRC+ on line drives.

Here is the issue with Nunez, those numbers seem unsustainable. Nunez’s percentage of barreled balls in play is just 1.7%. His rank among those with 30 batted ball events is 447th. This is the same percentage of barreled balls as Yankees backup catcher, Austin Romine. Nunez seems unlikely to sustain his production on fly balls and line drives given this statistic.

Nunez slashed .313/.341/.460 with 12 home runs, 33 doubles, 24 stolen bases, 60 RBI and a 112 wRC+ this season. His 3.7% walk rate was the fifth lowest in the majors in 2017.

Also key to point out that Nunez missed most of September with a knee injury that knocked him out of the playoffs after only one at-bat.

Todd Frazier on the other hand has a xwOBA of .352 but his real wOBA was just .340. Frazier has been an adept fly ball hitter since 2014 and could succeed more when working with Kevin Long. Frazier barrels the ball in 9.6% of his batted balls events. That number was good for 88th in the MLB among those with 30 batted ball events.

Frazier finished the 2017 season hitting .213/.344/.428 with 27 home runs, 76 RBI and a 108 wRC+. His 14.4% walk rate was the sixth best in the majors.

Defensively, Frazier is the much better defender. He has 30 career defesnive runs saved and whereas Nunez has -5 DRS at third base. Frazier’s 6.0 UZR/150 bests Nunez’s -10.5 UZR/150, which gives a good idea of who could be a better defender in the long run.

Frazier can also play first base in the event Dominic Smith needs more seasoning but Frazier will likely not hit enough to be considered a long-term first baseman. He is also too good of a defender at third to play first base. Frazier’s ability to play everyday is also very impressive, he has not played less than 147 games since 2012.

While xwOBA is not the end all be all, but it should definitely be looked at when we analyze a player’s season. Nunez might succeed as a Met and get sprinkled with the Kevin Long-fly ball revolution dust. Frazier seems like the better fit though for the Mets in my opinion.

Both will get similar contracts, but Frazier is the better fielder and is the safer bet for the better hitter going forward.