A Comparison of Shortstops Erick Aybar vs Wilmer Flores

As most of you all know by now, on Friday, the Atlanta Braves dealt All-World defensive shortstop Andrelton Simmons and catching prospect Jose Briceno to the Los Angeles Angels in exchange for highly regarded pitching prospects Sean Newcomb and Chris Ellis. Also heading to Atlanta was veteran shortstop Erick Aybar.

Braves GM John Coppolella told reporters on Saturday, that Aybar was a key to the deal because he was an upgrade offensively over Simmons (barely) and would provide some veteran leadership.

“You can make an argument that we’ll win more games with Aybar,” Coppolella said. “This wasn’t a prospect trade. This was a value-for-value trade with two really good prospects in it.”

But many believe that there’s a good chance the Braves might just flip Aybar for a prospect or two the first chance they get. I can certainly see them doing that as they continue to rebuild the team for their new ballpark debut in 2017. I just hope he doesn’t somehow get flipped to the New York Mets.

I’ve always liked Erick Aybar, a fierce competitor, he’s been a very solid offensive and defensive player for the Angels over the past ten years. He’s averaged 30 doubles, 20 steals and a 3.2 fWAR since 2010. Not bad at all. But age catches up to everyone and in 2015, Aybar struggled both in the field and at the plate and his 1.0 fWAR was the lowest of his career.

Aybar is a true switch-hitter and what I mean by that is he hits LHP and RHP with equal proficiency. I like that about him. He’s not going to steal 30 bases a year anymore, but he’s still good for about 15 swipes a season and the Mets could certainly use some more speed in their lineup.

What concerns me about Aybar is that his .270/.301/.338 season with three homers and 44 RBI, may not just be an aberration, but the beginning of an offensive decline. And at age 32, we could see more of the same numbers next season or perhaps even worse. Let’s not mince words, clearly Aybar’s best seasons are now behind him.

Meanwhile, is there anyone who would disagree that at age 24, the best is yet to come for Wilmer Flores? After sporadic playing time in 2013 and 2014, Flores finally got a chance to play somewhat regularly and he produced a similar batting line to Aybar – .263/.299/.403. But what really jumps out at you is that Flores had 22 doubles, 16 home runs and 59 RBI in 128 less plate appearances.

Once upon a time, Erick Aybar was an excellent defensive shortstop, not Andrelton Simmons excellent, but good enough to win a Gold Glove in 2011.

However, his range has steadily declined in the last three seasons, and in 2015 he had the worst year defensively of his career. He committed 17 errors this season, his highest total in six years. His -7.1 UZR and -8.0 UZR/150 were both the worst of his career. It was also his third straight season with negative Defensive Runs Saved.

Comparatively, Wilmer Flores had a -2.5 UZR and -3.3 UZR/150. Not only was he better defensively than Aybar, but what those numbers don’t tell you is how much Flores progressed defensively in the second half as he became more comfortable. Still he ranked 8th among all shortstops in UZR/150. Shocking isn’t it.

Sure, Flores committed 14 errors last season, but did you know 11 of them came in the first half of the season when he was still getting acclimated? According to Inside Edge Fielding, Flores made 94.6% of routine plays and 28.6% of unlikely plays.

Who remembers this gem from Joe Buck in Game 4 of the World Series…

“Can someone please tell me who said this kid can’t play shortstop? Flores has shined at short in this series and not many shortstops make that play.”

Perhaps it’s time to dispense with the “Flores can’t play shortstop” narratives and commend the kid for working his butt off to become viable at the position.

Anyway, let’s wrap this up. Who doesn’t love projections at this time of the year, I know I do. And one of the leaders in projections and by far the most popular is Steamer. Here goes…