Major League Baseball and the Major League Baseball Players Association are expected to meet every day this week in an effort to bring an end to the lockout that is now close to three months long. The meeting frequency represents a realization by both sides that unless a deal is reached by February 28 (or very close to that date), the start of the regular season will be delayed.

We know how they got here. On one hand, it’s hard to believe the players and owners have met only six times since December 2. On the other hand, neither side felt a particular sense of urgency to get a new Collective Bargaining Agreement done until now. The players know the owners begin losing money when spring training games are canceled (which the first week of them has been) and the clubs face the prospect of giving back local advertising revenue. The owners know players would prefer not to miss a portion of their 2022 salaries, particularly after losing two-thirds of their income in 2020.

So now, with both sides seeing lost dollars on the horizon, they have decided to roll up their sleeves and get to work to avoid lost games, and dodge the wrath of the paying customers to whatever degree they still can. Going into this critical week of negotiations, here are a few things to watch closely.

Some Owners Are Attending The Meetings

According to Bob Nightingale of The USA Today, here is the lineup:

This is an interesting collection of team owners. The larger markets are represented by Steinbrenner and Henry, the middle market is represented by Fowler, and Monfort’s market is somewhere between middle and small. The feeling is that the large market teams are more willing to work with the players and compromise on certain points (such as the Competitive Balance Tax) than the middle and smaller market owners. With this collection of clubs represented, the hope is there can be some give and take within the owners’ ranks, and the negotiating sessions will not be dominated by the less flexible small market clubs.

Core Economic Issues Will Determine Deal or No Deal

MLB and the MLBPA have agreed on a few points, such as the Universal Designated Hitter, the concept of a draft lottery, expanded playoffs, and the need to raise the minimum salary. The details of these points of agreement need to be ironed out in most cases, but these matters do not represent the biggest obstacles to a new CBA. The three topics below do, and it’s on these where there will need to be concessions by both sides on areas where each has previously said its position in locked.

Pre-Arbitration Player Compensation

The good news is that the owners and players have agreed to the concept of a bonus pool for these players, where salary would be a function of production (such as fWAR or bWAR). The problem is the players want 80% of players with more than two but fewer than three years of service time eligible for the bonus pool. This is quite a jump from the current 22% of “Super Two” players who are eligible for arbitration (the bonus pool would replace arbitration for these players). The owners are adamant that the 22% number will not move. As a result, the sides disagree on the amount of money that would go into the pool. There will need to be give and take on this point in this week’s negotiations.

Revenue Sharing

Currently, teams share 48% of local revenue (tickets sold, concessions, merchandise, etc.). The owners want to keep it this way, and the players are arguing for less revenue to be shared. They are concerned that the shared money goes to teams that do not necessarily spend it on the major league product, leading to less money being available to players than in the scenario where the large market teams keep more money and invest in player salaries. MLB and the MLBPA will have to figure this one out this week.

Competitive Balance Tax

This is the biggest one of all. In the link above are the details of the owners’ most recent proposal on the CBT. The players want a higher threshold and lower (or the same as the current CBA) tax rates. The high tax rates as that the owners have put forth will act as harder cap, in the players’ opinion. This will put a drag on spending by the large market teams, and reduce the overall amount spent on players’ salaries. On this point, word is the owners are divided, with the small market clubs seeking to stay firm on small increases in the threshold and high tax rates.

After the last bargaining session on February 17, there was some conjecture that the owners may be willing to flex a bit in the CBT in exchange for union concessions elsewhere. If the owners are not willing to move from their most recent offer, things may get ugly.

While there are many issues to sort out, progress on the three core economic areas above will make or break the bargaining sessions this week. It’s great that they are talking and have at least committed to the process. Now, both sides will have to be ready to make concessions, and feel some pain along the way. If they do this and are serious about striking a deal, there’s a chance the season will start on time. If these meetings prove to be cosmetic and both sides refuse to actually negotiate, we may be in for more acrimony and frustration.

I do think they will make a deal this week. The reality of lost income is now real. They have each waited for the other side to blink. Neither side really has. There is a lot at stake — not just a full season, but the long-term health of the game that, despite declining popularity, provides a $10 billion industry from which both sides benefit.

We know they don’t trust each other and don’t really like each other. That’s clear. It’s time to get past that, arrive at a new CBA that will never be everything both sides want, and get baseball back on the field.