Nolan McLean, SP
Player Data: Age: 25 (07/24/2001)
B/T: R/R
2026 Traditional Stats: 31 G (31 starts), 179 2/3 IP, 3.16 ERA, 12-10, 194 K, 70 BB
2026 Advanced Stats: 128 ERA+, 26% K%, 9.4% BB%, 3.61 xERA, 3.59 FIP, 3.5 fWAR, 3.0 bWAR
2027 Salary: Pre-arbitration
Grade: A-
2026 Review
Coming off an incredible debut in 2025, Nolan McLean entered 2026 with sky-high expectations. He began his season by pitching in the World Baseball Classic, starting for Team USA in the Championship Game against Venezuela. When the regular season started, it wasn’t all smooth sailing for McLean. After getting tagged for seven earned runs by the Reds on May 25, his ERA rose to a concerningly high 4.40. However, the rookie right-hander settled into a groove following that disastrous outing, posting a 2.51 ERA with 119 strikeouts over 118 1/3 innings from May 31 to the end of the season. McLean allowed two or fewer earned runs in 17 of his final 20 starts, and after allowing six homers in a four-start stretch in May, he allowed just nine homers over the rest of the season. Overall, McLean ranked in the top 10 of the National League in ERA (9th), strikeouts (7th), WHIP (10th), batting average against (4th) and innings pitched (6th).
McLean’s bread-and-butter pitch was his sinker, using it 34.7% of the time and registering a gaudy +27 run value. It ranked as the most valuable sinker in baseball by a wide margin (Spencer Miles was next closest at +19) and the third-most valuable pitch overall, trailing only Jacob Misiorowski and Cam Schlittler‘s four-seam fastballs. While his sinker registered only a 12.1% whiff rate, opponents hit just .191 against it with a 36.4% hard-hit rate. McLean’s four-seamer registered a higher whiff rate at 27.2%, though it was also tagged for a .506 xSLG. When McLean began to struggle with his sweeper, he began leaning more on his regular curveball, and it produced a 37.8% whiff rate to go along with a .120 xBA and .168 xSLG. In some ways, McLean is a bit of an anomaly, as he posted a below-average whiff rate and chase rate, but was able to record an above-average strikeout rate. Command was McLean’s weakness at times, as his walk rate increased to 9.4% and he hit 15 batters. McLean wasn’t able to maintain his sparkling 60% ground-ball rate from 2025, but his hard-hit rate decreased from 43.4% to 35.5%, and his average exit velocity went from 89.5 mph to 87.9 mph. Additionally, despite a heavy increase in his workload, McLean’s velocity on his pitches went up across the board. McLean will likely receive plenty of consideration for National League Rookie of the Year, as well as some down-ballot votes for the Cy Young Award.
2027 Preview
McLean is again expected to be at or near the front of the Mets’ starting rotation, which will likely be a very young staff, including Zac Thornton, Christian Scott and Jonah Tong. David Stearns has expressed his commitment to upgrading the front end of the rotation, meaning McLean might not be tasked with being the ace of the staff. The 25-year-old adjusted nicely when he ran into adversity this season, and now he needs to take the leap to stardom.
