One step forward, one step back. That is what the New York Mets (33-41) have done in recent weeks. After taking two of three against the first-place Atlanta Braves last weekend, they followed that up by losing two of three against the Cincinnati Reds – not a good recipe for trying to push closer to .500. The Mets will try to reset against the Philadelphia Phillies (40-34), who are now 31-14 under interim manager Don Mattingly. Let’s take a look at some notes ahead of the three pitching matchups this weekend.

PITCHING MATCHUPS

  • Thursday: Sean Manaea (1-2, 4.78 ERA) vs. Aaron Nola (3-4, 5.86 ERA): As of late, no arm for the Mets has been in better form than Manaea. Over his last 25 2/3 innings, he has pitched to a 3.16 ERA. Manaea started his first game of the year against the Braves last Saturday, giving up two runs over six innings. He is starting to find the levels he showed towards the end of the 2024 season. Nola and the Phillies agreed to a seven-year deal in November of 2023. The first year of that deal was solid, as he went 14-8 with a 3.57 ERA. Since then, he has pitched to a 5.95 ERA over 31 starts. After once being considered the ace of the Phillies’ rotation, recent history suggests that that version of him is well in the past.
  • Saturday: Freddy Peralta (5-5, 3.90 ERA) vs. Cristopher Sánchez (8-3, 1.82 ERA): Peralta has not had the type of success Mets fans expected from him prior to the season. Through 15 outings, he has a total of four quality starts, half of which came in April. Although, Peralta did earn a win last Sunday against the Braves, allowing one run over five innings. He is 0-2 with a 3.12 ERA in eight career appearances (seven starts) against the Phillies. Sánchez is the real deal. Since the start of last season, he is 21-8 with a 2.27 ERA. He is one of the betting favorites to win the Cy Young in the National League, along with Jacob Misiorowski. Sánchez has thrown seven innings or more in four of his last five starts.
  • Sunday: TBD vs. Zack Wheeler (6-1, 2.01 ERA): The Mets have yet to announce a starter for Sunday’s game. A few options exist. They could go with Tobias Myers, who gave up seven runs over 1 1/3 innings in his return to the big leagues on Monday against the Reds. David Peterson is also a possibility to be used as the bulk guy, especially considering two of the Phillies’ best hitters are left-handed. It will be interesting to see which direction the Mets go in. Wheeler has been nothing short of extraordinary in his return from thoracic outlet syndrome. He has given up two earned runs or fewer in eight of his first 10 starts. A remarkable run coming off such a major injury. The Phillies are 8-2 in games started by Wheeler this season.

WHAT’S THE STORY?

The Mets’ offense has been much better of late. They are scoring 4.78 runs per game over their last 18 contests. It hasn’t been perfect, but signs of improvement have been there. The bullpen, especially the backend of it, has been solid for quite some time. Devin Williams, Luke Weaver, etc… have performed well after a difficult start to the year. The one area that is really holding the Mets back right now is starting pitching. Through 74 games, they have a total of 17 quality starts. Only four teams have fewer than that.

Clay Holmes is out for the foreseeable future, and Christian Scott was placed on the injured list earlier this week. Not ideal for a group that seems to be pretty thin at the moment. If the Mets want to get back into the playoff race, the rotation needs to step up. Nolan McLean had his best performance of the season on Wednesday. Could that be looked at as a turning point for the starters as a whole? The Mets need more from Peralta, Peterson and Kodai Senga, among others. It’s a critical stretch for the rotation.

PREDICTION

The Mets have shown at times that they can perform well against quality opponents. That will be required this weekend. But right now, the Phillies look like a completely different team from the one that got off to a slow start a few months ago. I think they handle business and take two of three at home.