The Effects of Firing a Manager In Season

As of April 28, Alex Cora, formerly of the Boston Red Sox, and Rob Thompson, formerly of the Philadelphia Phillies were fired from their managerial positions over the last week. Managers have been fired as early as six games into a season, though most tend to be let go around Memorial Day. The Red Sox and Phillies have had a start to the season about as bad as the Mets and hope these changes in the coaching staff will help them right the ship. Could Mets manager Carlos Mendoza be next?

How have teams historically performed when they fire their manager in season? Who tends to replace them? And what can we gather from this? I looked through every manager who was fired in season since the start of the 2000 season to try to answer that.

Team Record After Firing

This is the part most people likely want to know: did the teams that fired their manager during the season have a better winning percentage after firing than they did before? From a straight wins vs losses all these teams averaged a .413 winning percentage before firing their manager, and a .457 winning percentage after. That is an improvement, but still a 74-win pace.

Of these teams 70% still had a losing record after firing their manager, 27% had a winning record, and 3% were exactly .500. 84% of teams performed better after firing their manager while 6% performed worse.

Only five of these teams made the playoffs, but two of them did make it to the World Series. Most of these teams likely had roster and organizational issues that went beyond just the manager, but in general it seems like a shake up did help the team’s performance. Though that could also be just correlation without causation – usually teams who have struggled enough to fire their manager are due for some positive regression to the mean as it is.

What were the biggest success stories though?

Most Successful Turnarounds

The obvious one to name is the 2003 Miami Marlins who won the World Series. The Marlins started 16-22 when they fired manager Jeff Torborg and hired the then retired Jack McKeon to manage the team. Under him the Marlins went 74-49 (98-win pace) to end the season 91-71, making it into the playoffs through the Wild Card round. They made it to the World Series and beat the New York Yankees in six games.

In 2022 the Phillies fired manager Joe Girardi in June when the team was 22-29 and promoted Rob Thompson to the manager spot. The same Rob Thompson who was just fired. Under Thompson that season the Phillies went 65-46 (95-win pace) to make the Wild Card round off an 87-75 record. They made it to the World Series but lost to the Houston Astros in six games.

The 2004 Houston Astros, 2009 Colorado Rockies, and 2022 Toronto Blue Jays also made the playoffs after firing their manager during the season.

Who Replaces the Manager?

Most of the new managers were the bench coach at the time of their predecessors’ firings. It makes sense that the second in command would take over. For the Mets that would be Kai Correa, who does have some experience managing games from when he was with the San Francisco Giants and he managed the last three games of the season.

Other teams promoted minor league managers into the major league manager spot. It also makes sense as they have experience managing a team and may already have relationships with some of the players on the team. Candidates there for the Mets include Syracuse Mets manager Dick Scott, who was previously a bench coach at the major league level.

Teams also looked to their bench coaches, hitting coach, or pitching coach to take over the job as manager. Justin Willard, the Mets pitching coach, Troy Snitker the Mets hitting coach, and Tim Leiper the Mets third base coach all joined the organization this year so the Mets may not want to have them change positions so quickly. Director of hitting Jeff Albert has been with the Mets since 2022 and could be an option to take over the manager position. Mets first base coach Gilbert Gómez has worked in the Mets organization since 2018 after previously playing in their minor league system and has managed in the Mets minor league system as well as the Dominican Professional Baseball League.

Finally, teams have looked to members of their front office to manage the team. Andy Green, the VP of Player Development, managed the San Diego Padres from 2016-2019 and previously interviewed for the Mets manager position alongside Carlos Mendoza. He would likely be considered the most qualified candidate for the role, but the Mets may not want to move him from a role he has thrived in.

Conclusion

Less than 10% of teams over the last 26 years have made the playoffs after firing their managers during the season but the majority of them did improve. Carlos Mendoza is in the final year of his contract, though the team does have an option on him for 2027.

Benefits for moving on from him now is that the Mets get the majority of a season to see how his replacement performs to decide if they want to invest further in that individual. A trial run of sorts.

A concern is the potential negative impacts it can have on the players as we are currently seeing play out through the media with the Boston Red Sox. Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor, and Devin Williams have already voiced their support for Carlos Mendoza.

But in the end the buck stops with the manager. This is still early in the season compared to when teams usually replace them, but two teams have already. It seems clear that Carlos Mendoza has at least until the end of this homestand based on his media availability, but we will see where the team goes from there.