Three Trends Contributing to the Mets’ Poor Play

So many things need fixing for the 9-19 Mets, but for the sake of time (and my sanity) I will focus on three problems. They are swinging at bad pitches, blowing leads and failing in the clutch.

Chase Rate Percentage

With the Mets down 3-1 in the seventh inning on Sunday against the Rockies, Brett Baty waved at a 1-1 pitch well out of the strike zone. Two pitches later he struck out looking. Per Baseball Savant, the Mets are 25th in the league in chase rate percentage, a stat that measures swinging at balls out of the strike zone.

New York’s chase rate percentage is at 32.1. For reference, the Yankees lead the league at 25.8 and the Blue Jays and Rockies are tied with a league-worst 34.1. League average is 29.7.

The worst offender in the lineup regularly by far is Bo Bichette at 41.8 (his worst since 2020), but he’s not alone. Mark Vientos is at 33.8% and Luis Robert Jr. is at 32.1%. Baty is at 31.8%, up from 24.9% last season. Francisco Alvarez‘s 31% is up from 27.8% last year and the highest it’s been since his rookie year. Marcus Semien is at 29.1%, up from 23.4% a year ago. Carson Benge is at 26%. Juan Soto, one of the best at knowing the strike zone, is at 17% for his career. He’s at 24.2% this year through 13 games.

This is “pressing” quantified.

Saves

A sneaky way to avoid blowing saves is to not give yourself too many chances and the Mets are last in save opportunities with six. But how have the Mets done in save situations? They are 2-for-6, tied with the Angels (4-for-12) for the worst conversion percentage in the league. Next worst is the Nationals (6-for-16) at 37.5%, so the bullpens could provide some drama in the three-game series that starts Tuesday at Citi Field.

Of the 30 teams, 25 are at 50% or better. The Braves have converted 11 of 12 to lead MLB.

Huascar Brazobán blew a save against the Twins last week when he gave up a grand slam in the eighth inning in a game the Mets ultimately won. Devin Williams blew a one-run, ninth-inning lead against the Cubs on April 19. The Mets lost that game in the 10th.

Hitting with Runners in Scoring Position

Look, all of the hitting numbers are ugly. Overall, the Mets are slashing .226/.288/.337/.625. The Mets’ league-worst OPS is 31 points back of the next-to-last Phillies. The Dodgers lead the majors with an .821 OPS. The only Met posting a better number than that is Soto (.831).

So, you could say the Mets are “stepping it up” with runners in scoring position since they are slashing .232/.313/.336/.649, which ranks 22nd/23rd/26th/27th. But I’d call that misleading (and clever). Only the Cardinals, Blue Jays and Royals have a lower OPS with runners in scoring position.

In that 3-1 loss to the Rockies on Sunday, the Mets had the bases loaded and one out in the first inning. Semien struck out swinging and Baty was caught looking. In the eighth, they were loaded again with one out. Robert fouled out and Vientos struck out swinging.

A year ago their team OPS was .753, sixth in MLB. And with RISP, it was .803, which came in third behind the Dodgers and Blue Jays.

But Wait, There’s More

A few other bonus nuggets: The Mets have stolen 16 bases, which is tied for 21st in the league. Last season they finished fifth. Is it the Antoan Richardson Effect? The jury is out. The Braves were 26th in steals last year and are now tied for 25th.

Are you part of the problem? Attendance at Citi Field is down from an average of 39,775 last season (fifth in MLB) to 36,110 (seventh). Maybe we all need to look in the mirror. (Kidding!)