The final series of the regular season is upon us. Let the drama begin (or not, hopefully). The New York Mets (82-77) open the weekend in control of their own destiny. Taking two of three from the Chicago Cubs could not have come at a more perfect time, in addition to getting some help from the Pittsburgh Pirates and the Los Angeles Dodgers. As it stands, the Cincinnati Reds are a game behind the Mets, with the Arizona Diamondbacks trailing them by two games.

There’s now three games to go. In the Mets’ way stands the Miami Marlins (77-82), who are playing their best baseball of the season. Since September 10, the Marlins are 11-3, the third-best mark in the league during that stretch. While the Marlins are eliminated from playoff contention, expect this series to be tight. Let’s take a look at some notes ahead of the three pitching matchups.

Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images

PITCHING MATCHUPS

  • Friday: Brandon Sproat (0-1, 3.94 ERA) vs. Sandy Alcántara (10-12, 5.48 ERA): Sproat will take the ball in the opening game of the series. He is coming off a tough outing, allowing four runs on four hits across four innings against the Washington Nationals on September 19. Length will be something to watch for Sproat, especially with how many innings the bullpen covered in the series against the Cubs. He will make his second road start and his first since his debut in Cincinnati on September 7. Alcántara’s overall stats do not look good, but don’t be fooled. Over his last seven starts, he is 4-1 with a 2.70 ERA. Home runs have remained an issue despite his recent run of good performances, allowing six over his last six outings. Alcántara is 5-5 with a 2.98 ERA in 17 career starts against the Mets.
  • Saturday: TBD vs. Eury Pérez (7-5, 4.20 ERA): Beyond Friday, it’s difficult to predict who will start for the Mets. As of now, the team has not listed a starter for either Saturday or Sunday. Sean Manaea and Clay Holmes appear to be likely options, although both threw an inning in relief on Wednesday. Mets manager Carlos Mendoza didn’t seem to believe that would impact their status for this weekend. I expect one of them to pitch on Saturday, if not both. Pérez has had an up-and-down year in his return from Tommy John surgery. Lately, the results have been very good. Over his last three starts, Pérez is 1-0 with a 1.84 ERA. He threw 88 pitches against the Texas Rangers last Sunday. The Mets most recently faced him at Citi Field on August 29, tagging him for five runs in 2/3 of an inning.
  • Sunday: TBD vs. Edward Cabrera (7-7, 3.66 ERA): As mentioned above, the Mets have not named a starter for the series finale. If Manaea or Holmes do not pitch on Saturday, they will no doubt be options on Sunday. David Peterson would be lined up to throw on normal rest, but he has a 7.74 ERA since the start of August. With the way things have gone for him, it’s hard to see him getting a start of this magnitude. Could Kodai Senga return and be involved despite worrying reports off the back of a recent live batting practice session? Let’s see how it unfolds. Cabrera was activated earlier this week after recovering from a right elbow sprain. He completed four innings, allowing three runs on five hits against the Philadelphia Phillies on Tuesday. Cabrera threw 67 pitches in that outing, opening the door for a longer appearance this weekend. He is 5-3 with a 2.91 ERA in 13 home starts this season.

OTHER SERIES TO KEEP AN EYE ON

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Diego Padres

WHAT’S THE STORY?

Do the Mets have enough starting pitching to get over the line? In the first two games of the series against the Cubs, the starters were only able to complete a combined 3 1/3 innings. That trend cannot continue if the Mets want to win this series in Miami. The bullpen has rounded into better form in recent days, but stretching them to the max could cause all kinds of problems. I expect quite a few roster moves throughout the weekend, especially with Triple-A Syracuse’s season now over. Justin Hagenman and Brandon Waddell are just a few names that may be considered.

PREDICTION

With the way this season has unfolded for the Mets, expecting anything straightforward would be a mistake. The Marlins have their best starters lined up to pitch, which makes this weekend that much more difficult. Let’s also not forget that the Mets have only won five of their first 10 matchups this season. It will be close. The Mets exercised their demons in Atlanta to make the playoffs last season. They have the oppurtunity to pull off a similar feat in Miami over the next three days. I think they sneak in, winning two of three and getting just enough help from the Brewers, who face the chasing Reds in Milwaukee.