Photo Credit: Corey Sipkin of New York Post

Today marks the beginning of the annual MLB Winter Meetings. This year, the meetings will be held in San Diego, California from December 4 through 7. The New York Mets still have a lot to achieve in order to produce another World Series contending roster in 2023. Hopefully, these meetings in San Diego, along with the Jacob deGrom deal signed Friday night, will jump-start an otherwise league-wide quietness thus far this off-season.

The only major move the Mets have made thus far this off-season was handing out a well-deserved five-year, $102-million extension to Edwin Díaz. In addition, the Mets have also brought in a plethora of pitchers (relievers) who may compete for a roster spot out of training camp or be looked upon as depth. These include Tayler Saucedo, Stephen Ridings, Jeff Brigham, Elieser Hernandez, William Woods, Denyi Reyes, Zach Muckenhirn, and Jimmy Yacabonis.

Potential Spending Consequences

To understand what the Mets have to work with, analyzing their current payroll would be wise. Currently, per Sportstrac, New York has a total active payroll of $184,674,999. This figure currently tops the major leagues. It is also $48,325,001 off the first luxury-tax threshold of $233 million.

Though, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, when adding in the projected arbitration/pre-arbitration figures, money retained by New York, and other adjustments and benefits, this figure jumps up to $242,675,000. A figure already above the first aforementioned luxury-tax threshold. As you can see, the Mets are once again expected to blow through the thresholds. Thank you, Steve Cohen.

Specifically, given this is the second year in a row the Mets are expected to pierce the threshold, they will have to pay a 30% tax on all overages. Further, as the Mets spend more and more, as they are expected to, surcharges will be applied. You can find that breakdown below:

  • $253 million to $273 million: 12% surcharge
  • $273 million to $293 million: 45% surcharge (would be second-straight year)
  • Over $293 million: 60% surcharge

You can read a more in-depth explanation on the potential penalties here.

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Current Roster Outlook

As mentioned above, the Mets have plenty of holes concerning their roster general manager Billy Eppler and team must work to plug in the coming months. There are several individuals who played vital roles on the team last year that currently lining the free agent market. One including the Mets former two-time Cy Young Award winning pitcher who signed with the Texas Rangers.

Further, as was evident by the team’s early exit in the 2022 playoffs, the team’s roster, as it was, had holes to begin with. So, with all that in mind, what are the Mets currently working with?

Starting Rotation

After picking up Carlos Carrasco‘s team option, the Mets’ rotation projects as such:

  1. Max Scherzer
  2. Carlos Carrsco
  3. David Peterson
  4. Tylor Megill
  5. Joey Lucchesi

Really, the only other option on the 40-man roster with major-league starting experience is Elieser Hernandez. As you can see, the current rotation is desolate, thanks in large part to Jacob deGrom signing elsewhere and Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker, and Trevor Williams all littering the open market.

Expect an extensive rebuild of the rotation in the coming days and weeks.

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Bullpen

As mentioned above, the only major move New York has made this off-season concerned the team’s bullpen. Edwin Díaz is back, along with him, the only other meaningful contributors to the bullpen last year that are still on the 40-man roster is Drew Smith. The triplets of Yoan López, Bryce Montes de Oca, and Stephen Nogosek are also all still on the roster, though, each are far from proven commodities and likely cannot be relied on. At least not right away.

An interesting candidate is former Marlins’ reliever John Curtiss who missed all of last season rehabbing back from Tommy John surgery. He has 3.63 ERA across 86 1/3 career major-league relief innings. Further, as mentioned above, the Mets brought in a large number of individuals likely to challenge for a spot in the bullpen come training camp. The headliners being Jeff Brigham, Jimmy Yacabonis, Stephen Ridings, Tayler Saucedo, and William Woods.

The Mets have expressed reported interest in bringing back 2022 bullpen stalwart Adam Ottavino. Other major contributors out of the bullpen last season that are free agents are Seth Lugo, Trevor May, Joely Rodriguez (signed with Boston), Mychal Givens, and Tommy Hunter.

By far, the area of the Mets that will need to be addressed the most by Eppler and the Mets in the coming days and weeks.

Position Players

Most of the 2023 Mets will consist of different faces from the 2022 club. Though, the lineup and bench should stay relatively intact. Here is how the Mets’ depth chart currently projects given those listed on the 40-man roster (no specific order):

There are also younger players in the minor leagues that can fight for spots out of training camp.

The only major loss from last year’s club currently is Brandon Nimmo. He is a free agent, as well as the likes of Tyler Naquin and Dominic Smith. Each of which had some run in the major leagues with the Mets last season.

The Needs

After analyzing the breakout above, the target area for the Mets is clear: pitching. Of course, that cannot be their only area of target. As the lineup is lacking an outfielder, either center or right dependent on where Starling Marte roams next year, as well as a full solution to the designated-hitter (DH) role. Though, a second baseman may also be a potential need if the Mets decide to move Jeff McNeil to the outfield and roll with a Marte, Mark Canha, and McNeil trio.

Credit: USA Today

Pitching 

New York is likely needing to add two more starters at the minimum. One of which will need to be top tier. With deGrom officially off to Texas, the Mets top-tier options are now limited. New York has reportedly had zoom meetings with the other top free agent starting pitchers in Carlos Rodón and Justin Verlander. Signing either of those are as close as a must now with deGrom gone, and it would instantly solve their need for a top of the rotation arm to pair with Max Scherzer.

Carrasco and Peterson would likely be serviceable to fill out the bottom of the rotation. Though, that would leave one more glaring hole as relying on either Joey Lucchesi or Tylor Megill in the rotation would not be something a potential World Series winning roster would be composed of. The Mets have already been tied to both Kodai Senga and Jamison Taillon, each of which would fill that last spot well. New York was also linked to Andrew Heaney earlier in the off-season. A potential under-the-radar option.

Of course, Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker are both out there as well. Bassitt was very effective for the Mets, and they reportedly have been in contact with him. Walker, although some good moments, will likely get paid more than his value on the open market.

Other potential options on the market – in order of total WAR last season – are Jose Quintana, Ross Stripling, Corey Kluber, Noah Syndergaard, Michael Wacha, Sean Manaea, Nathan Eovaldi, among others.

Worth pointing out, SNY reported on the Mets targeting two levels of pitcher. One of the two elite ones left, as well as one from a middle tier compromised of the likes of Taillon, Senga, etc. Rightfully so.

As for the bullpen, the Mets have a lot more work to do there. New York only has two relievers guaranteed to be in the major leagues come next season (Díaz and Smith). That leaves about five open spots. Some of those can be potentially filled in-house (large list of examples above), though, given those options bringing in two-to-three guys would be wise.

As mentioned above, the Mets are interested in bringing Ottavino back which would be a great start. It was also recently rumored they have been tied to veteran Tommy Kahnle.

Other top names, specifically those that are right handed, consist of Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, David Robertson, Brad Boxberger, and Michael Fulmer. The top left-handed relievers are Taylor Rogers, Andrew Chafin, and Matt Moore. Any of those would be terrific adds for the Mets.

Of course, free agency is not the only route the Mets can go. We saw New York trade for Chris Bassitt and Joely Rodríguez last season. Though, candidates in the trade market are much harder to predict.

Pablo López was reportedly almost dealt to the Yankees at the trade deadline last year. Meanwhile, the Rays’ extreme pitching depth and potential 40-man roster issues may force their hand in trading someone like Tyler Glasnow, Jeffrey Springs, or Drew Rasmussen. Shane Bieber’s name has also been thrown around.

Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Hitting

As prefaced above, the Mets are likely going to need the hole left by Brandon Nimmo if he is not brought back to New York, as is still very possible. This year’s hitting market is headlined by star shortstops, each of which likely will not be on the Mets’ radar given the fact they already have their own franchise middle-of-the-diamond man. Though, Trea Turner has played second base, if there is any premier hitting target the Mets may chase, he would be the guy. However, the chances of that happening appear to be slim-to-none.

Speaking of guys that play second base, if the Mets were to move McNeil to the outfield, former Phillie, and renowned Mets’-killer, Jean Segura, is on the market. The contact-hitting Adam Frazier is also a free agent.

As for the outfield, if Nimmo does not re-sign and the Mets keep McNeil at second base, there are options, though limited. The top of the market consists of the likes of Andrew Benintendi, Mitch Haniger, Michael Conforto, Jurickson Profar, and Cody Bellinger.

The last offensive need is some more pop. One of the knocks on the Mets’ offense last year was the lack of power, whether it be extra-base hits or home runs. The Mets lacked a slugger outside Pete Alonso. An area in the lineup where it can be used is in the DH position. New York lacked to find the answer there most of last season. After Dominic Smith and J.D. Davis both faltered there, the Mets turned to a platoon of sorts consisting of Daniel Vogelbach, Darin Ruf, and Mark Vientos. Outside some sustained success from the physically-limited Vogelbach, the DH-spot was a black hole.

Potential free agents that can help fill this void are Josh Bell, Justin Turner, Brandon Drury, J.D. Martinez, Michael Brantley, or Trey Mancini. Or, another potential intriguing option is bringing in one of the top free agents in Willson Contreras to catch while Francisco Álvarez works on his defensive game as he serves as the team’s DH next season.

As with the pitchers, the Mets can conversely address their lineup via trade rather than the open market. Some names that may be available and would fit a need are the likes of Christian Walker, Daulton Varsho, Anthony Santander, Rhys Hoskins, among others. Also, Bryan Reynolds reportedly requested a trade on Saturday. Though, the Pirates responded explaining he is going to remain with the team.

Final Thoughts

Of course, it is way easier said than done, but the Mets plan entering the Winter Meetings and the rest of the off-season is clear.

They need to address the rotation via adding a couple arms. Specifically one of elite status, one to pair with Max Scherzer, formalizing a one-two punch the Mets wanted to have last season. The bullpen is where New York has the most work to do. There are several strong names out there, so general manager Billy Eppler and the Mets do not have any excuse to not adequately address that area.

Lastly, a bat to replace the potential loss of Brandon Nimmo. As well the need to address the woeful DH spot would be ideal. Though, you can hopefully count on some of the young guns, such as Francisco Álvarez and/or Brett Baty to produce next season.

As mentioned above, addressing these needs can either be done via the open market or potentially through trade. In doing so, expect the Mets to fly through the luxury tax and potentially creep toward the “Steve Cohen tax.” The Mets appear serious about winning, and they have a lot of work to do. Expect them to be extremely active in filling their several aforementioned holes in the coming days and weeks.