Series Preview: Pirates Visit Mets For Final Series Before ASG

The Mets and Pirates will become well-acquainted over the next couple of weeks.

Starting on Friday, the two teams will play the first of seven consecutive games against each other, with the All-Star break in between.

This weekend, the struggling Pirates (32-54) come to Citi Field in need of next week’s break. Expected to be one of the league’s worst teams this season, they have not done much to prove critics wrong. Their longest winning streak all season is just three games, which they’ve done on three separate occasions (including earlier this week).

But when the loses come, they’ve piled up quickly. Pittsburgh has lost at least six consecutive games three separate times as well in 2021.

Offensively, Bryan Reynolds and Adam Frazier lead the way. Both players are hitting over .300 and have an on-base percentage over .390.

The pitching has been their biggest achilles heel. Pittsburgh’s team ERA of 4.78 is second-worst in the NL (only Arizona is worse). Of their starting pitchers who’ve started at least eight games this season, none have an ERA below 4.00. JT Brubaker has been the best of the group though, posting a 4-8 record to go along with a 4.08 ERA and a (literally) average 100 ERA+.

Defensively, the Pirates have been a mess as well. Their almost inexplicable fielding miscue earlier this year against the Cubs was a viral sensation.

At least the Pirates get to play in baseball’s most gorgeous stadium. That waterfront view from the ballpark is something Pirate fans can be happy about in an otherwise lost season. Lucky for the Mets, who will be visitors at PNC Park next weekend.

The Mets (45-38) continue to play winning baseball. They just completed a series vs. the Brewers that saw them take 2 of 3, including an epic walk-off victory in Wednesday’s doubleheader opener. Pitchers such as Tylor Megill and Corey Oswalt have stepped in for the Mets to fill gaps in the rotation, while the bats remains on fire. The #BenchMob has been relentless as well, with Jose Peraza delivering a clutch game-tying home run in that aforementioned win from Wednesday afternoon.

Jacob deGrom had another poor start, but only because we’re expecting complete greatness each time he pitches. deGrom allowed four hits, including two home runs, and was on the verge of a loss before Peraza’s heroics. His ERA now sits at 1.08, still good for best in baseball by a wide margin.

Friday, July 9, 2021: RHP Taijuan Walker (7-3, 2.44 ERA) vs. TBD (0-0, -.– ERA)

Walker has fallen off a bit since posting a sub-2.00 ERA through May, but he remains one of the most notable All-Star Game omissions. After shutting out the Braves in 5.0 innings on the mound on May 29, Walker’s ERA has risen from 1.84 (a season-low) to 2.44. Yet his last two starts have both been effective. In each game, he pitched at least 5.0 innings and allowed no more than two runs. In each of his last three starts, he’s struck out five batters. This comes after striking out a season-high 12 batters vs. the Cubs on June 15.

Saturday, July 10, 2021: RHP Marcus Stroman (6-6, 2.60 ERA) vs. LHP Tyler Anderson (4-8, 4.39)

Stroman has been one of the most underrated pitchers in all of baseball this season. He’s allowed three or fewer runs in nine consecutive starts, yet has not recorded a win since June 12. On the season, he’s tossed 78 strikeouts, punching out eight batters in a game in four different starts. He last accomplished this on June 17 vs. the Cubs, when he allowed 2 runs in 7.0 innings. However, he actually struck out zero batters in his last start, which was at Yankee Stadium. Stroman’s had some trouble walking batters this year (25 walks), but his ERA remains one of the better marks in the NL.

Anderson’s numbers are deceiving. He’s actually been a relatively effective pitcher for most of this season, outside of two disastrous starts. Allowing 9 runs to the Braves and 6 runs to the Nationals did damage to his ERA, but otherwise, Anderson can routinely be counted on for 5.0 innings of three run or less baseball. Over his last three starts, he’s put up a 2.41 ERA in 18.2 innings. His strikeout totals were higher earlier in the season though; he’s thrown a season-high seven strikeouts in four games this season, but not since May 21.

Saturday, July 10, 2021: RHP Tylor Megill (0-0, 3.77 ERA) vs. TBD (0-0, -.– ERA)

The rookie Megill has been one of the best surprises for the Mets this season. Stepping into the rotation mid-season, he’s allowed just 6 runs in 14.1 innings thus far. His strikeout numbers have especially been impressive, racking up 8 and 7 strikeouts in his last two starts, respectively. Megill’s most recent start was perhaps his best in his young season. He allowed just one run in 5.0 innings, also allowing two hits in an eventual Mets win. If Megill can keep up this level of production (or something similar) over the next few weeks, he might earn himself a spot on the roster even once pitchers such as Syndergaard and Carrasco return from the IL.

Sunday, July 11, 2021: TBD (0-0, -,– ERA) vs. RHP Chase De Jong (1-3, 5.08 ERA)

There is speculation that Jacob deGrom might start this game for the Mets, although their starting pitcher for Sunday remains TBD. But if deGrom DOES start, what else is there to say about the likely NL Cy Young (and possible MVP)? He defies excellence. Every deGrom start is a joy to watch, not only for Met fans, but for any fan of baseball.

Just like his teammate Anderson, Chase De Jong has been a good pitcher for the Pirates outside of a few rough starts. He allowed five runs to both the Marlins (including three home runs) and Rockies (yes, that was a Coors game). His walk numbers have also been a bit elevated (3+ walks in multiple games). Yet despite this small sample size, his other starts have done mostly limited damage. In his last start against the Braves, De Jong allowed just four hits and one run in 5.0 innings, earning his first win of the season. He did not make his first pitching appearance of 2021 until May 30, after signing a minor league contract in the offseason.

Prediction

The Mets have an incredible opportunity in front of them to really create a sizeable lead in the NL East. I think they sweep Pittsburgh at Citi Field – yes, a four-game sweep headed into the break. With their four best pitchers lined up in this series (Megill has been on a roll and I’m assuming deGrom starts Friday), this is the time to prove to the league that they can capitalize against weaker opponents. Back in the Steel City next week, I see the hot streak continuing for the boys in orange & blue. Mets take 2 out of 3 at PNC, backed by The 7 Line’s first group road outing since 2019 on Saturday.

Mets go 6-1 vs. the Pirates, and travel to Cincinnati with at least a 6.0 game lead in the division.

It will be all smiles for the Metropolitans on their short trip from Pennsylvania to Ohio. In the words of Bill Belichick, “we’re onto Cincinnati.”