Series Preview: Brewers Visit Mets In Battle of First-Place Teams

It’s a good time to be a sports fan in Wisconsin.

On the eve of the Milwaukee Bucks making their first NBA Finals appearance since 1974, Milwaukee’s other red-hot team comes to Queens to play the Mets for a three-game set at Citi Field. This will be the first series between the Brewers and Mets since 2019.

The Brewers (51-34) are one of baseball’s best teams right now, having recently won 11 games in a row before Sunday’s loss to the Pirates. Their pitching staff is led by two All-Stars — Brandon Woodruff and Corbin Burnes. Woodruff’s ERA (1.87) is third in the NL behind Jacob deGrom and the Giants’ Kevin Gausman.

Freddy Peralta, another key arm in the Brewers rotation, has posted a 2.23 ERA in 17 games pitched (16 starts) this season, an ERA mark which ranks seventh among all National League qualifiers. However, he was not among those named to the midsummer classic.

Continuing the Brew Crew’s theme of dominant pitching, Josh Hader leads the way in the bullpen. Also an All-Star selection, his 0.55 ERA and 20 saves in 33 appearances is a major reason why Milwaukee has a very comfortable seven-game lead atop the NL Central.

The hitting has done enough to keep the Brewers winning, but the numbers do speak for themselves. The team has the second-lowest batting average in all the major leagues (.221), although their on-base percentage of .311 does rank near the middle (tied for 17th among 30 teams).

Milwaukee’s best hitter has been catcher Omar Narvaez, who is slashing.301/.393/.459 with seven home runs and 25 RBI across 229 plate appearances.

Former NL MVP Christian Yelich got off to an uncharacteristically slow start in 2021, hitting just one home run before the start of June. While he’s still far from his MVP-level production in 2018, his .412 OBP would rank first in the NL if he were eligible for qualification.

This series will be a true test for the Brewers as to their legitimacy as a contender. During their 11-game winning streak, 8 of those wins were versus the lowly Diamondbacks, Rockies, and Pirates.

The last time the Brewers played at Citi Field, they took 2 of 3 from the Mets. That series, the Mets started two pitchers who have not played for the team at all this season (Syndergaard on the IL and Matz traded to Toronto).

And as the Mets go, they continue to play winning baseball and remain in first place in the NL East. Now that the full-time starters are almost all returned from the IL (only J.D. Davis remains sidelined), look for the team to continue its winning ways and for the bats to remain hot.

The Mets are coming off a weekend in which they took two of three from the Yankees, in a Subway Series that saw the Mets score 8 and 10 runs, respectively, in two dominant wins over their cross-town rivals.

Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso, and Dominic Smith have all been swinging a hot bat. In four games this month, Smith has a .471 OBP with three home runs. Alonso hit a home run in each game of Sunday’s doubleheader in the Bronx. Nimmo has five hits in 14 at-bats since returning from the IL on July 3.

The pitching remains the Mets’ strongest point. Despite being snubbed from the All-Star Game, Taijuan Walker and Marcus Stroman join deGrom in one of baseball’s best top-three in a rotation. Edwin Diaz, also a notable omission from next week’s All-Star Game in Denver, has pitched to a 2.84 ERA to go along with 17 saves.

Monday, July 5, 2021: RHP Tylor Megill (0-0, 4,82 ERA) vs. RHP Brandon Woodruff (7-3, 1.87 ERA)

Tylor Megill is making just his third career start (all this season). In his first two outings, the rookie allowed two earned runs and three earned runs, respectively, while even striking out an impressive eight batters in his last start. While it’s a very small sample size, he’s provided quality innings for a Mets team that has been decimated by injuries to the backend of their rotation all year.

Woodruff has emerged as the ace of a very well-rounded Brewers rotation. Over his last three starts, he’s gone 2-1, allowing just one earned run in each of his last two. He struggled in the thin-air of Denver, allowing five earned runs and walking two batters in five innings, but it was mostly just a bump in the road for one of baseball’s best hurlers this year.

Tuesday, July 6, 2021: RHP Jacob deGrom (7-2, 0.95 ERA) vs. LHP Brett Anderson (2-5, 4.69 ERA)

Each week, there seems to be a new incredible stat to tell about deGrom. After a “poor” last start in which he allowed three earned runs in the first inning alone, deGrom ended up retiring the final 18 batters he faced. Oh, and he also struck out 14 batters, one short of his career high. After seven innings of work, his season ERA “ballooned” from 0.69 to 0.95. There is no denying the greatness of Jake.

Brett Anderson has had an up-and-down season in 2021. In his last start, he got shelled for five runs (three earned) in just 1 1/3 innings against the league-worst Diamondbacks. Meanwhile, he was nearly untouchable in his previous start. He pitched a gem of a game vs. Cincinnati, allowing no earned runs and just one hit in seven innings. On the season, he’s gone 2-5 with a 4.69 ERA. His 88 ERA+ is his worst since 2017 (71 ERA+)

Wednesday, July 7, 2021: TBD (0-0, -.– ERA) vs. RHP Corbin Burnes (4-4, 2.41 ERA)

The Mets have yet to announce a starter for Wednesday’s series finale.

Corbin Burnes is building off of his 2020 breakout campaign, in which he went 4-1 with a 2.11 ERA, finishing sixth in NL Cy Young voting during the shortened season. This season, he’s put up an ERA + of 170, while has 120 strikeouts rank eighth in the National League. He’s a key reason why the Brewers may have the best rotation in all of baseball this season.

Prediction 

Tuesday night’s game will be showcased on ESPN, which will be great exposure for two of the league’s best teams. With the Brewers throwing out their two best arms in this series, the Mets counter with their own ace Jacob deGrom in the only game of this three-game set that doesn’t feature a Brewers All-Star starting pitcher. I think the Brewers win Woodruff’s start, while the Mets win deGrom’s start. The rubber match will all depend on who the Mets send out, but it will be a tough test against Burnes regardless. The Mets bats are just starting to heat up, though, so I say they carry that momentum into a series win and an upset over Burnes in Wednesday’s game. This series will be one of the biggest tests for the New York this season, but likewise, Milwaukee will be tested as well against tougher competition.