Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY
On January 19th, 2021, the New York Mets helped facilitate a large deal between the Pittsburgh Pirates and San Diego Padres. In doing so, the Mets landed left-hander Joey Lucchesi.
Coming into the spring training, the career 4.21 ERA pitcher was looked upon as a depth option and someone who would rival David Peterson for the final spot in the rotation. However, due to a hamstring injury suffered by the newly-acquired Carlos Carrasco and the continued rehab of Noah Syndergaard, Lucchesi was forced into a starting rotation role before the season began.
The Rough Beginning
After making a relief appearance against the Philadelphia Phillies, Lucchesi made his first scheduled start against the Colorado Rockies. The southpaw only lasted three innings and allowed three runs. In his next start, Lucchesi allowed another three runs in only three innings. He then went on to get obliterated in 2.2 innings against the St. Louis Cardinals, allowing six runs on seven hits while throwing 63 pitches.
Lucchesi did have a solid appearance after faltering against the Cardinals, but it was in a “bulk” role behind opener Tommy Hunter. Given the solid performance, Lucchesi was once again relied upon in the same fashion against the Tampa Bay Rays. In his worst appearance of the season, Lucchesi was lit up for four runs in only 1.2 innings.
Over the above-mentioned five apperances, he allowed 18 hits and 16 runs in 13.2 innings. This was good for a 10.91 ERA. Not only did he hurt the Mets when he was pitching, but he also severely depleted the bullpen by barely averaging two innings per appearance. Luckily for the Mets, Lucchesi has turned his season around, emerging as a serviceable back-of-the-rotation pitcher in the process.
The Resurgence
Since his horrific appearance against the Rays, the “churve-master” has made four starts, allowing only three runs over 17.1 innings (1.58 ERA) and striking out 19. Over this time, he has given up two home runs, has limited walks and has a batting average against of .171. It has been one of the better stretches of his career.
Now, with it only being four starts and two being against weaker offenses, it is reasonable to be a bit skeptical. However, a deeper look into Lucchesi’s stats shows why this stretch should be an indicator of things to come.
Per Baseball Savant, Lucchesi’s xERA and xBA rank in the league’s 62nd and 70th percentiles, respectively. His strikeout rate and walk rate rank in the 59th and 73rd percentiles. Lucchesi is doing everything that makes a starting pitcher successful. He is limiting walks, striking batters out, and in return being expected to allow fewer runs and fewer hits than the league average. What’s most impressive is these statistics track the whole season and include his rough start.
It seems possible that Lucchesi was a victim of some poor luck and bad play behind him to start 2021. He registered a .327 actual batting average against during his poor start, but his xBAA was only .253. Usually, when a pitcher endures these types of discrepancies between actual and expected numbers, some bad luck and defensive play (less likely given the Mets’ defensive prowess this season) is to blame. This may have made his rough start look worse than it actually was.
What’s Next?
The next step, besides building and continuing this string of stellar play, is for Lucchesi to start going deeper into games. We saw a glimpse of this on Sunday, as he went five complete innings for the first time this year. In an interview after the game, Luchessi was asked by MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo about the fact he has not been allowed to face the opponent’s lineup more than twice. He responded by simply saying he thinks he deserves the opportunity to do so.
If Lucchesi is successful in his next start, it seems very likely we would see him rightfully be given the opportunity to go past the six-inning mark. If this all comes to fruition, the New York Mets would officially have a serviceable, number-five starter for the remainder of the season, or at least until they get healthy.
Now, especially with the season-long struggles of Peterson, adding another starting pitcher may be ideal. However, if Lucchesi were to give the Mets both continued solid play and some more length, it would do wonders for this team going forward and may even decrease an apparent need to add a starter. If his season analytics and recent stretch are any indicators, it seems he is well on his way to do so.
