Brandon Nimmo Is Having A Great (And Weird) Start

We’re just about two weeks into the 2021 MLB regular season, so while the small-sample-size argument is fully in play, there’s a good bit of game data to look at for most teams. Of course, “most teams” don’t include the New York Mets, who have managed to play just five games during this period of time.

Despite having so few games on their ledger, there has seemingly been an endless number of opportunities to get frustrated by the 2-3 start they’ve produced, especially after wasting Jacob deGrom‘s absolute gem of a performance on Saturday afternoon. It’s literally impossible to draw any real conclusions from this five-game sample — even if some of the issues are just a continuation from past years. What we can do, though, is see how ridiculous some statistics are looking thus far.

It’s quite an understatement to say the offense has struggled out of the gate in 2021. Among the eight position players with at least 10 plate appearances, only three have a wRC+ north of 100 (Dominic Smith, Pete Alonso, and Brandon Nimmo). For the other five, none have a wRC+ higher than 73. If we look at the above three who are currently above-average in offensive production, there’s a clear divide. Alonso (120) and Smith (105) are close to one another, but Nimmo’s 222 wRC+ is head-and-shoulders above the pack.

While his start hasn’t been nearly as powerful as some other hitters on the wRC+ leaderboard (he owns a .176 ISO), Nimmo is currently among the league’s top-20 hitters off the strength of an eye-popping .412/.565/.588 triple slash. Upon looking further into some of his peripherals, it’s interesting how the 28-year-old has landed on these numbers early in the year.

The Normal Stuff

When hearing Nimmo’s name, one of the first things that come to anyone’s mind is his ability to reach base. After all, he entered this year with a career .390 on-base percentage and a 15.1% walk rate — both ranking among the best in baseball since 2016.

Through five games in 2021, it’s a similar story. His .565 on-base percentage has him nestled right in front of guys like Mike Trout (.564 OBP) and Byron Buxton (.548), while his 26.1% walk rate is only behind Robbie Grossman (30.3%) for the league lead. These numbers will obviously come back down to reality in due time, but it’s nice to see that Nimmo’s bread-and-butter is still very much a part of his game through his first 23 plate appearances of the season.

It’s also nice to see his strikeout rate currently sitting at 17.4%, which has continued to be in line with the improvement he experienced last year. After striking out at or above 25.0% of the time between 2016 and 2019, that number dropped down to 19.1% during the shortened season of 2020.

The Weird Stuff

That all feels like “the normal stuff” because they’re aspects of Nimmo’s game we’ve grown accustomed to seeing over the years. “The weird stuff” is a little more fun because no stats have stabilized and the numbers look pretty ridiculous.

If we look at the FanGraphs leaderboard for BABIP, Nimmo’s .538 mark is inside the top 10. Seeing such a high BABIP will always jump off the page, but when you’re just five games into a season, it doesn’t make jaws drop to the floor as much (I don’t think, at least). But still, among qualified hitters, only a small handful own a BABIP greater than .500, so it’s still an impressive feat despite the fact that it won’t last. What does stand out is what this particular number is accompanied by.

Entering Monday’s series opener against the Philadelphia Phillies, Nimmo owns a 30.8% soft-hit rate and a 23.1% hard-hit rate. As one might imagine, that soft-hit rate is among the highest in baseball when looking at qualified hitters, and that hard-hit rate is among the lowest. As if that isn’t weird enough, the outfielder has also posted a 38.5% line-drive rate, a 53.8% ground-ball rate, and just a 7.7% fly-ball rate.

With a weird profile like this, Nimmo’s ability to rack up line drives in early-going has been key to making his fast start possible. This batted-ball event has produced a 499 wRC+ (418 in ’20) off the strength of a 0.0% soft-hit rate and a 40.0% hard-hit rate (6.9% and 34.5%, respectively, in ’20).

As the season wears on statistics begin to stabilize, it’ll be fascinating to see how Nimmo’s performance changes on the balls he puts in play. While his walk rate and on-base percentage will likely come down, those are parts of his game that have been the most consistent since making his MLB debut in 2016. He’s done a great job progressing as a big-league hitter over the years, and what happens next will obviously show us if he’s ready to take yet another step in his development.